Market Outlook
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Price Trend: Positive
Price Volatility: High
Recommendation: Floating as the market attempts to rebound
_________________________________________________________________
Current Conditions: Today's Economic Data (all times PDT)
FNMA 4.5 100-22 (+7) GDP 5:30 GNMA 4.5 100-23 (+10) Chcicago PMI 6:45
10yr Yield 2.824% Consumer Sentiment 6:55
Employment Cost Index 7:00
_________________________________________________________________
Commentary:
After the beating taken by Treasuries and mortgages yesterday bonds have recovered moderately this morning. Both were up before any data was released and after some selling in the wake of the GDP report prices are near their highs of the day.
The GDP report required some dissection by the market before it could be completely traded. There was a large increase in the number because of built up inventories (which isn't really growth). With that data removed the drop in GDP was much closer to expectations.
Have a great weekend!
This Week's Calendar:
|
Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
Actual |
Briefing.com |
Consensus |
Prior |
|
Jan 26 |
10:00 a.m. |
Existing Home Sales |
Dec |
4.74M |
4.40M |
4.40M |
4.49M |
|
Jan 26 |
10:00 a.m. |
Dec |
.03% |
-0.5% |
-0.3% |
-0.4% |
|
|
Jan 27 |
09:00 a.m. |
Jan |
37.7 |
39.0 |
38.0 |
38.0 |
|
|
Jan 27 |
09:00 a.m. |
S&P/CaseShiller Composite |
Nov |
-18.18 |
NA |
NA |
-18.04% |
|
Jan 28 |
10:30 a.m. |
Crude Inventories |
01/23 |
|
NA |
NA |
6.1 mln |
|
Jan 28 |
02:15 p.m. |
FOMC Rate Decision |
Jan. 28 |
|
NA |
NA |
0-0.25 |
|
Jan 29 |
08:30 a.m. |
Dec |
-2.6% |
-2.2% |
-1.8% |
-1.5% |
|
|
Jan 29 |
08:30 a.m. |
01/24 |
588K |
580K |
575K |
585K |
|
|
Jan 29 |
10:00 a.m. |
Dec |
331K |
400K |
400K |
407K |
|
|
Jan 30 |
08:30 a.m. |
Q4 |
-.01% |
0.5% |
0.6% |
3.9% |
|
|
Jan 30 |
08:30 a.m. |
Q4 |
-3.8% |
-5.5% |
-5.4% |
-0.5% |
|
|
Jan 30 |
09:45 a.m. |
Jan |
33.3 |
33.5 |
34.0 |
34.1 |
|
|
Jan 30 |
09:55 a.m. |
Jan |
61.2 |
62.0 |
61.9 |
61.9 |
|
|
Jan 30 |
10:00 a.m. |
Q4 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
0.7% |
0.7% |
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