How much have prices fallen? When will we hit bottom?

It's amazing how many people, including some real estate agents, spit out whatever numbers they heard most recently on the national news - followed by a statement that we are a year or two from recovery. They forget one of the most basic principles of real estate: All Real Estate is Local

Other agents rely on their 'years of experience' and tell you that their 'gut feeling' is ... well, just so happens to also be the most recent numbers that were announced on the national news!

I prefer to answer these questions differently - do the research first, then answer the question! I've been tracking Arvada's Pomona Lakes neighborhood for a few years now, and printing my findings in my Neighborhood Newsletter. I've expanded the Newsletter to include all of Arvada, and important events throughout the Denver metro area. If you want a copy of the Newsletter, let me know! If you like the analysis I do here, I'll gladly do the same for your neighborhood too.

In the meantime, back to answering the questions -

Pomona Lakes' 2006 average sold price (after concessions) was $242,471
Pomona Lakes' 2007 average sold price (after concessions) was $245,423
Pomona Lakes' 2008 average sold price (after concessions) was $222,705

Did the value of Pomona Lakes homes drop almost 10% from 2007 to 2008?  Before you answer, consider this -

The homes that sell for the least per square foot are bi-levels.  In 2007 bi-levels accounted for 14% of the market.  In 2008 bi-levels accounted for 50% of the market.  Since bi-levels sell for less, could that shift account for some of the price reduction?

2007 Average sold price for tri-levels was $245,906.  2008 average sold price for tri-levels was $247,505.

That doesn't look like a price drop to me!

Average days on market 2006: 87.8   Average days on market 2007:  69.99          Average days on market 2008:  68

Price per finished square foot (all styles)  2006:  $104.53   2007:  $107.19     2008:  106.83 

Pomona Lakes has remained pretty stable!

The point of all this is -

Those who are waiting for prices to drop further to buy your home - be careful!  You just might miss the bottom.

2006 Pomona Lakes Homes Sold (in order of sale date):

                                                                                                           Days on
Address                  List Price    Sold Price   Concessions       PSF         Market      Style    

8138 W. 81st Ave.     210,000       210,000           1,000            114/114*        73       Bi-level  
8174 Ammons Way    234,900       226,000           5,000            120/120**      43       Tri-level
8193 Flower Ct.         224,900       224,900           5,000            152/80            41       Ranch  
8345 Dover Way        269,950       269,950           2,000            140/140**        7       Tri-level
8226 Yarrow              255,000       255,000           6,000            117/90          276       Tri-level
8347 Club Crest Dr.    239,000       240,000         13,000            112/112*         61       Bi-level 
8452 Dover Ct.          244,990       248,000           4,236            145/110         155       Tri-level
8335 Dover Way        283,000       283,000                0              171/90            14       Ranch 
8241 Pomona Dr.       249,900       239,400           6,000              88/88*           40       Bi-level
7959 W. 82nd Pl.       270,000       265,000         13,780             145/123         127       Tri-level
8258 Everett Way      219,900       222,700           6,600             106/106*       192       Bi-level
8445 Dover Way        284,900       270,000           3,000             124/94            39       Two-story
8274 Ammons Cir      255,000       252,150           8,650             148/81           124      Ranch 
8322 Flower Ct.         289,000       280,000           2,000             119/105           72      Tri-level
8245 Yarrow              229,999       229,999           3,000             115/115*         53      Bi-level

2007 Pomona Lakes Homes Sold (in order of sale date):

                                                                                                            Days on
Address                  List Price    Sold Price   Concessions       PSF         Market      Style    

8121 W. 81st Pl.         225,000     215,400         4,500              129/129**   158         Tri-lvl
8300 Dudley Way       236.500     213,000               0               137/78          58         Ranch
8281 Brentwood Ct     293,888    286,000          3,200              140/100        18         2 story
8062 Ammons Way     284,000    284,000                0              135/135**       8         Tri-lvl
8247 Yarrow Ct.         229,900     226,315          7,650             123/123*       46         Tri-lvl
8632 84 Cir               305,000     305,000          6,200              141/97          16         2-story
8053 Ammons Way    279,900     279,000          5,000              142/110       135        Tri-lvl
8440 Dover Way        259,500     267,000          7,000              180/95            3        Ranch
8421 Allison Ct.         231,000     231,000          4,897              132/107         13        Tri-lvl
8270 Allison Ct.         229,900     210,000          3,000               98/78          169       Tri-lvl
8194 Field Ct.           225,000      225,000                 0              129/129*      11        Bi-level
8452 Dover Ct.         249,900      246,500                 0              145/110        92        Tri-lvl
8680 84th Ave.         245,000      253,500         14,000              117/92          88       2 story
8382 Flower Ct.        279,900      275,900           3,000              127/127**      6        2 story
8150 81st Pl.            269,000      265,000           2,400              154/116      102        Tri-lvl
8205 Ammons Cir     268,000      260,000                  0              142/107       80        Tri-lvl
8270 Allison Ct.        279,900      274,000                  0              128/98         22        Tri-lvl
8261 Pomona Dr.      219,900      194,900                  0                91/84         41        Bi-level
8427 Dover Ct.         255,200      248,000                  0              162/162**    95        Bi-level
8447 Dover Ct.         249,900      245,000            3,800              121/97       167        Tri-lvl
8252 Yukon Ct.         219,900      214,000                  0                98/77       140         2-story

2008 Pomona Lakes statistics (in order of sale date):

                                                                                                           Days on
Address                  List Price    Sold Price   Concessions       PSF         Market      Style    

8207 Everett St.        239,900      239,000                 0               110/86         20       Two-Story
8394 Dudley Ct.        173,250      173,250           4,850                82/82*          6        Bi-level 
8324 Everett Way      234,950      234,950                 0               135/135*      12        Bi-level 
8236 Yarrow Ct.         239,000      238,500                 0               124/100         6        Tri-level
8204 Everett St.        188,900       189,000          2,475                92/92*       123       Bi-level 
8295 Dover Way        265,000       265,000         10,000              152/112          2       Tri-level
8133 Ammons Way    238,000       225,000             860              134/134*       14       Tri-level
8197 Dudley Way       199,900      199,900          13,725             114/114*     243       Bi-level 
8281 Allison Ct.          269,900      265,000                 0              145/110         12      Tri-level 
8342 Club Crest Dr.    167,900      167,300           5,310               96/96*        231      Bi-level 
8262 Ammons Cir.      258,900      258,900           4,015               134/101        80      Tri-level
8533 W. 84th Cir        259,900      257,900                  0             120/120*        68      Bi-level

Sold by various realtors. List price at time of sale, original list price could be different.
‘Concessions’: how much the sellers contributed (down payment, closing costs, repairs).
‘PSF’: price per sq ft/price per finished sq ft. *no basement   **unfinished basement
‘DOM’: current days on market/total days on market
Info from table above was taken directly from Metrolist on February 17, 2009.

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 Copyright © 2009 Joetta Fort, The DiGiorgio Group