Twin Cities Market Stats....dark clouds and silver linings?

Real Estate Sales Representative with Coldwell Banker Burnet

The Twin Cities Metro has seen the real estate bubble burst in many areas. Reviewing stats from the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors, it shows what areas have been hardest hit by this tsunami. Here some stats for you to chew on:

10 Twin Cities areas where foreclosure and short sale listings make up the greatest share of homes for sale. Since these properties take a much bigger price hit than conventional home sales, this is in part an index of downward pricing pressures in those areas as a whole: 1) Brooklyn Center, 65.9 percent; 2) Minneapolis North, 64.9; 3) St. Paul Central, 59.1; 4) St. Paul Phalen, 58.8; 5) Big Lake, 56.8; 6) Minneapolis Camden; 56.3; 7) St. Paul Hillcrest, Hazel Park, Dayton's Bluff 56.0; 8) Spring Lake Park, 54.1; 9) Minneapolis Powderhorn 53.9; 10) Brooklyn Park 52.7.

10 local areas where the prices of foreclosed or short sale properties saw the biggest year-over-year drop. This offers a graphic reminder of how much poorer the Twin Cities's poorest areas are getting as a result of this crisis: 1) Minneapolis Phillips, -52.6 percent; 2) St. Paul Central, -44.9; 3) Minneapolis Camden, -43.9; 4) St. Paul Hillcrest, Hazel Park, Dayton's Bluff, -42.7; 5) St. Paul Riverview/Cherokee -41.0; 6) Minneapolis Powderhorn, -37.9; 7) Hopkins, -36.7; 8) Minneapolis North, -36.6; 9) St. Paul St. Anthony/Midway, -35.0; 10) Northeast Anoka County, -33.0. 

10 local areas with the biggest backlog of "traditional" (i.e., not foreclosed or otherwise bank-involved) sale listings. Think of this, in part, as a testament to how unattractive and overbuilt the far-flung suburbs have become, and potentially a harbinger of foreclosure increases to come: 1) Lakeland/Afton/Denmark, 23.7 months' supply; 2) Hennepin Northwest, 21.5; 3) Ham Lake, 21.3; 4) Southern Chisago County, 18.8; 5) Northwestern Anoka County, 18.6; 6) Lake Minnetonka area, 18.1; 7) Prior Lake, 17.0; 8) Northfield, 16.9; 9) Northeast Anoka County, 16.6; 10) Stillwater/Bayport, 16.3.

On the positive sides, there has been a decline in inventory on the market over the last two quarters. While there is still considerable inventory in the marketplace, as inventory declines, the pendulum will begin to shift back to a sellers market. But don't think this will happen overnight. It will be at least a few years of flushing out the foreclosures before we can take a deep breath and have the housing market return to normal.

As I advise my clients, the problem with the current market is the 'food chain' is broken. In traditional markets, people buy starter homes and as their careers change and their family dynamics change they move up into larger homes. The problem is that with all of the foreclosures, that food chain is highly damaged. People who were counted on to 'move up' are few and far between. Those that are ready to move up find that any equity they had to put towards their next home has been squeezed out of their current home. Thus, they are stuck....and so is everyone that lies up the food chain.

Hang in there.....things will get better.

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