Some Interesting Forecasts for Housing

Real Estate Agent with Baird & Warner Real Estate

Today I attended a company seminar with all the usual rah-rah, updates, and praise for top producers.  I liked everything I saw - especially the soon-to-be debut of Baird & Warner's new consumer friendly website,

We also had a special speaker, real estate coach and trainer Rich Casto, who's been in the real estate industry for many years, give some interesting predictions.  Obviously, the best trained economists with multiple Ph.Ds couldn't see this mess coming and Rich acknowledged that.  But he was excellent at explaining in very simple terms how we got here (stupidity, of course!)Rich Casto

Here's what else he had to say today:

  • Only 1/5 of the foreclosures have hit the market at this point
  • Unemployment is typically the final state in an economic downturn and we are well into that stage.
  • Historically, housing is usually the first to stumble, and the first to get going again

houses for sale

for 2009 he predicts:

  •  More of the same (as 2008) but with some slight increase in sales in the Spring.  Warm states are ahead of cold areas, and a weather thaw will aid sales.
  • We will begin to get back on track by spring of 2010
  • Housing starts will be kept low - a good thing for existing inventory
  • The downward price spiral is almost over

Another economist on television said that if you think that 2009 will continue to slide until the end of the year when things will begin to look up - you are an optimist.  Well that I am.  Rich Casto's predictions are not that far off of that.  And while the stimulus and bailout packages will continue to be debated, homes in the North Shore will continue to sell if priced correctly.  In Winnetka, Wilmette, Kenilworth and Glencoe, under-contract numbers are higher than the same period in 2008.  Surprising as that sounds, it's welcome news.



Posted by

Margaret Goss - Winnetka and North Shore Real Estate Broker
Specializing in homes for sale in Winnetka, Wilmette, Kenilworth, Northfield, Glencoe, Glenview, Northbrook, and Evanston.

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Andrea Swiedler
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices New England Properties - New Milford, CT
Realtor, Southern Litchfield County CT

Margaret, Thanks for that update. I am a bit concerned that only 1/5 of the foreclosures have hit the market. Unless I can find more first time homebuyers, or listings appropriate to that buyers group, it might be a long year! But, the fact that he said, historically the housing market is the first to go and the first to come back gives me something to look forward to!!!

By the way, as a side note, love your picture with the dog. My office is a very dog friendly/pet friendly office. DOGS RULE! So do cows!

Feb 18, 2009 10:26 AM #1
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Margaret Goss

Chicago's North Shore & Winnetka Real Estate
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