Trying to time the bottom of the market price-wise? Waiting to lock in on historically low interest rates at just the right time? Let's face it, attempting to "read the tea leaves" of the real estate market is challenging. Developers, mortgage companies, and real estate professionals, among others, are once again wishing for a crystal ball for guidance in this ever-changing market.
Having a few more facts from our region may be helpful in gaining "local' real estate perspective. So, let's review a few key statistics to show the 2008 market at a glance. The data presented in this article is from the Southwest Montana Multiple Listing Service (SWMLS).
Within the Bozeman city limits, there were 296 single family homes sold in 2008, compared to 331 in 2007. There were 216 condos/townhomes sold in 2008, compared to 425 in 2007. For the first time in four years, detached homes sales outpaced attached housing. Average sales prices in both categories showed slight reductions, with single family homes declining from $337,683 in 2007 to $320,342 in 2008, while attached housing went from $234,936 in 2007 to $215,730 in 2008. However, of particular note, these average prices are still higher than the average sales prices in 2005, which was considered by most as the peak in our regional market.
The Belgrade area market experienced a slowdown from the previous year with the number of single family home sales dropping from 268 in 2007 to 152 homes in 2008. However, the average sales prices did increase by 6 percent to $302,630. The condo/ townhome market reflected the same situation with a drop in units sold from 114 to 47 yet an increase in average sales price of 1 percent to $158,188.
The market in Livingston/Park County had 116 single family homes sold in 2008 compared to 165 in 2007. Average sales prices decreased by about 1 percent to $287,546. Condo and townhome sales in Livingston showed a drop from 38 units in 2007 to 18 in 2008.
The Big Sky market, including Gallatin Canyon, reported 28 sold single family homes in 2008, compared to 57 in 2007. The average sales price increased from $1,467,337 in 2007 to $1,823,173 for 2008. Condo and townhome sales outpaced single family homes with 59 units sold in 2008 compared to 60 in 2007. The average sales price increased from $552,588 in 2007 to $726,843 for 2008. Big Sky was the only market to show an increase in vacant land sales from 22 in 2007 to 31 in 2008, however average sales prices decreased from $945,034 (which included ten sales over $1,000,000) in 2007 to $676,288 in 2008.
As one who continues to seek, and find, optimism in the logic of using real estate as a stable, smart, long-term vessel for creating and retaining wealth, I often don't have to look far. Bozeman's recent, well-publicized ranking as one of the nation's top 25 housing markets for 2009 is certainly promising. The national online real estate research firm, HousingPredictor.com, presented Bozeman with the rank of #8 and Livingston as #13 in the nation for real estate appreciation in 2009. The goal of HousingPredictor.com is to provide unbiased and independent housing forecasts in all 50 states. The website's methodology section states "We examine more than 20 micro market characteristics in each market place, including income levels, employment trends and changes, school enrollment, business trends, regional political influences, real estate sales history and current housing market velocity. The factors are all considered to come up with each local market forecast." The site's segment on Montana (Billings and Missoula also received Top 25 status) continues to accentuate all the positive attributes of our state and seems to highlight that in this particular aspect, being isolated from national trends actually plays to our advantage.
Robyn Erlenbush
CRS, GRI, CRB, Broker Owner
Phone: (406) 586-1321
Send me an email
This was published in the Bozeman Daily Chronicle Feb 2009
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