Market Reports - Triangle NC
Thought this was a very interesting response to a local news story. The author of the letter is Stacey Anfindsen, a renowned local appraiser, consultant, and educator who spends a significant amount of time studying statistics for the Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill real estate market. He's been quoted on many occassions as an area expert. Stacey's TARR reports are an excellent source of information, with easy to read statistics and graphs drawn from all area sales and listing data.
Here's his letter, along with a link to the original story:
Gerrick Brenner
WTVD News
Durham, NC
Gerrick,
I have just viewed your report that aired on 2/23/09 at the following link; http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/local&id=6674500 and I take exception to the following;
1). The length of the story was 2:22, the first 19 seconds were devoted to the good news regarding house prices, the rest was devoted to the bad. As we discussed in our phone conversation, if you are going to present stories about homeowners who have lost money on residential housing, you need to balance that with stories regarding those who have made money.
2). You stated that Bedford is a development containing 500k+ housing, Larry Stogner referenced values up to a million. This is a misrepresentation of the development. There were 144 closings in the past 13 months within Bedford with house prices between 140k‐875k and a median sales price of 392k.
3). Your illustrations of 3 houses that sold, while factually correct, misrepresent what is going on in the overall market. As I stated in our phone conversation, I do not think that it is appropriate to find examples of houses that were overpriced at initial list, stayed on the market an extensive period due to that overpricing, and then took a significant discount from initial list to sell. You would need to balance that with examples of houses that were priced correctly and sold in under 90 days. If you had asked, I would have provided you with such examples. To your credit, you did mention one line about unrealistic list prices.
4). As an appraiser, I take great exception to lay people making statements of value regarding residential housing. Your comment regarding the current value of the Norowskis' house based upon what the house sold for next door borders on journalistic malpractice. If you were an appraiser, I would file a complaint with the North Carolina Appraisal Board.
5). The final line by Larry Stogner regarding house prices declining 3.5% also borders on journalistic malpractice. He did not define his source and he did not define values. I will attempt to enlighten you regarding house prices in Bedford at Falls River.
During 2008, there were 138 closings with a median sales price of 392k.
During 2007, there were 295 closings with a median sales price of 360k.
Based upon a comparison of the 2 most recent years of sales, there has been a 9% increase in the median sales price.
Within my database of Wake County closings, I track the percentage gain or loss from prior sales price.
Here are the figures for Bedford;
There have been 85 re‐sales within the past 13 months, 77 of these have a prior recorded purchase price. Of these 77, there have been 15 sellers who have sold for less than prior purchase price. The remaining 62 sold for more than prior purchase and the median percent per year gain has been 2.78%.
Of the 77, there have been 50 detached re‐sale closings. There have been 7 sellers who have sold for less than prior purchase and 43 who have sold for more than prior purchase. The median percent per year gain has been 2.88%.
I also track active listings and compare current list price with prior purchase price. I have 41 active listings in my database within the Bedford development. There are currently 8 sellers where current list price is less than prior purchase. The remaining 33 are priced above prior purchase and the median percent per year "gain" is 2.74%.
These are not the statistics of a development with house prices falling +/‐25% as inferred with your story.
Myself and others within the real estate community want the media to provide a balanced picture of what is going on in our market. To present an unbalanced story as you did on 2/23/09 only perpetuates fear with consumers and keeps them within their foxholes. In spite of reports regarding the downfall of traditional media, both print and televised media still hold great power over the consumer.
You should use this power wisely.
I would be more than willing to assist you on further stories, but you were not specific about what you were going to report on the Bedford development.
Thanks for your time.
Stacey Anfindsen
The above letter was written by Stacey Anfindsen of Birch Appraisal Group. Very interesting points made by a "numbers guy".
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