The April numbers are out and they're not pretty! Here's a snap shot for the local five county area.
APRIL MARKET STATISTICS
| COUNTY | # ACTIVE | NEW LISTINGS | NEW CONTRACTS | SOLD |
| Culpeper | 740 | 211 | 53 | 32 |
| Fauquier | 804 | 217 | 66 | 68 |
| Prince William | 5073 | 1668 | 471 | 427 |
| Rappahannock | 81 | 22 | 3 | 3 |
| Warren | 613 | 159 | 52 | 34 |
These numbers by themselves don't reveal the entire story. The really bad news here is that inventory jumped substantially, across the board. In every jurisdiction we're very near our all time high for inventory. New contracts and solds revealed very little improvement. In fact, in Culpeper County solds dropped pretty dramatically. And year over year numbers look pretty dismal.
Sorry sellers, but there is absolutely no good news to be found here. I'll say it again. (And I know I sound like a broken record!) There is no way to change this market without substantial price drops from sellers! Two other possibilities for salvation exist, but they seem like a long shot to me.
One is that over half of current inventory gets taken off the market. Given that the trend is in entirely the opposite direction I wouldn't count on that. And, there are truly some people who must sell. I think at one time we had enough sellers who just hoped to sell that they could have all taken their homes off the market and it would have made a difference. Now I don't believe that's the case.
The other possibility is that hoards of buyers come out of the woodwork, ready to buy. While I do think there's some pent up demand out there. And there are some smart buyers who are aggressively negotiating good deals ahead of the pack. But the vast majority of buyers will wait until everyone else jumps. It appears human nature is to follow the herd!
Culpeper still looks worse than the other counties and I still believe it's because of the rate of appreciation there as well as the impact of gas prices. Most of the peope who bought homes there were commuters into Northern VA and DC. The trade off of longer commute for more house is looking less attractive now!
If you'd like to look at the big picture you can go back to my earlier blogs on market statistics over the last year by county. They can be found under the category Local Market Conditions.
I'm interested to hear your thoughts as buyers, sellers and real estate agents about what you're seeing in the market. Do these statistics match up with your experiences?
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