Recent information from the RMLS showed a slight uptick in the housing market in February 2009 when compared to the previous month. This brings a much needed sigh of relief after the particularly barren January. But we still have a lot of houses to sell. Inventory dropped from 19.2 months of backlog to 16.6 and based on the numbers it is apparent the drop was not all due to houses being sold. Closed sales year over year, February 2009 to February 2008 fell 35.8% and the average sales price is down 12.9%. Average days on market continue to trend upward and most folks can plan on a solid 4-6 months to sell their home. Longer in higher priced markets and condos and shorter in highly desirable close in neighborhoods. Pricing is king and the key element in gaining buyer attention.
One area of concern is our sellers who are getting frustrated when finding themselves in a short situation, which will only get worse with the continued drop in prices. They are genuinally surprised when this happens inspite of upfront education on the market and price points. I have seen this defeat on more then a few occasions with folks just giving up and walking away. These are not people who over-extended, but rather the conservative homeowner that has lived in their home a number of years, perhaps used a line of credit (probably at the urging of a mortgage professional somewhere) for college, medical or remodeling and now finds that they owe a lot more on their home then it is worth. Their $500,000 home is now worth 25% less when they realize they need to make a move. With a $425,000 mortgage, they need to come up with some cash, stay on for at least another 4-5 years to get back to a potential break even or take the plunge now and go. While this normally goes against the grain of most folks, there is the allure of a "get out of jail free card" lurking around the corner. What do you think? Will there be a lot more people walking from homes and mortgages that would not normally fall into this category? I think the answer is yes and thus our hole will continue being dug.
Meanwhile, the powers that be are busy trying to come up with an alternative to the Mark to Market benchmark for valuing assets at our lending institutions, so they will not continue to be plagued by insolvency due to declining values. Does anyone have the answer out there? Would love to hear what you have to say!
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