Real Estate Agent with Sposato Realty Group RES.0810758


Thanks Conrad for HOPE in our future Real Estate Market! History does have a way of repeating itself and we are due for a boost in sales and a rebound in price! the numbers suggest an upswing is on the horizon!

Original content by Conrad Allen 74203

Lawrence Yun, NAR's economist, is predicting the coming housing shortage based on the "coming up short" chart.  Harvard created the "State of the Nation's Housing" report that also echo's Mr. Yun's prediction.  It really is just number crunching.

2000-2007, household growth averaged 1.2 million per year.  2007-2010 about 500,000 annually.  According to the Harvard report 16,000,000 (16 million) new housing units will be needed within the next decade.  Again, according to Harvard "the number of new households is set to rise sharply, supporting growth in population that fuels growth in new renters and first time buyers".  One only needs to look back in history over the last 40 years to see the cycles of demand and supply.  Zillow (I question why they are a trusted source) indicates that housing values are back to 2002 levels.

The mid 70's produced disintermediation.  Prices stumbled. The early 80's with 19% interest rates and 21% inflation reduced housing values.  Then President Reagan reduced all tax rates and the boom began.  Four years of exploding values.  Then the tax laws changed now calling real estate a passive investment.  The bust followed.  In the early 90's values fell 35%.  A growth spurt in the late 90's.  Then the new century.  2003 -2007 the boom again.  Bust 2008 to ?

Population increasing.  Housing not supporting growth.  Housing shortage will happen again as it has in the last 40 years.


Comments (4)

Michele Miller ~ REALTOR®, LMC, HSE, CHS, SRES, CMRS
ERA Key Realty~Worcester County Realty Group - Worcester, MA
'Helping You Make the Best Move"

Good morning Kathleen!

Yes, it coming! Conrad's a smart man!

We need to create an URGENCY with our buyers!

Jun 12, 2011 03:31 AM
Mary Ellen Holleran
Holleran Real Estate - Chapel Hill, NC

This is a great article with a much needed positive message-thanks!

Jun 12, 2011 03:35 AM
Larry Story ALC
Total Care Realty - Greensboro, NC
Beneath it all is the Land, Covering all of NC


I am skeptically optimistic on all these economist and their all knowing reports.  They usually sit behind their computers and pull data such as "Zillow" (OMG why) has published and wonder why their predictions do not come true.  We on the other hand with our "boots on the ground" here in the trenches know what is happening in our regional markets.  As we know real estate is a regional micro market.  This goes back to the same thing we use to complain about before with the national media and how real estate cannot be summed up so easily on a "National" graph.

Jun 12, 2011 07:12 AM
Conrad Allen
Re/Max Professional Associates - Webster, MA
Webster, Ma, Realtor

Thanks Kathleen for the re-blog.

Jun 12, 2011 11:32 PM