According to USA Today, in the wake of government reports issued on Oct. 19, economists are feeling more optimistic about third quarter economic growth. A Bloomberg News survey estimates economic growth up 1.8 percent from economist's projections less than 2 weeks ago. According to Capital Economics' Paul Ashworth, expansion in retail sales, manufacturing, business investment and jobs suggests that third-quarter growth could be as much as 3.2 percent.
Optimism is due in part to 10-year Treasury yields which have risen nearly .5 percent, encouraging greater investment in higher-risk assets, according to market strategist, Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial.
Much of the growth is attributed to a decline in oil prices and the resolution of supply issues resulting from the Japanese earthquake. According to the Commerce Department, as the log jam of Japanese imports eased, auto sales rose 3.6 percent, manufacturing grew at more than a 4 percent annualized rate, and businesses have increased spending on equipment and software. With this in mind, some experts contend that this growth is merely temporary.
Consumer confidence is still low and unemployment hovers at 9.1 percent. More pessimistic economists feel next year's growth will slow to 2 percent. However, jobless claims are lower than last summer, retail sales rose 0.6 percent last month, and consumer stock prices are at a premium in ratio to overall stock prices; these factors indicate that a recession is less likely.
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