Three Things: These three areas have the greatest ability to impact mortgage rates this week: 1) Fed 2) Tax Reform and 3) Domestic.
1) Fed: Our Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins two days of meetings on Tuesday and will culminate Wednesday afternoon with their policy statement and interest rate decision. But they will also release their revised economic projections (famous dot-plot chart) and will be followed up with a live press conference with Janet Yellen. While all markets widely expect a 1/4 point rate hike, the bond markets will be focusing on their future rate hike projections (dot plot chart) to see if the consensus among the Fed is 2 or 4 rate hikes next year.
2) Tax Reform: The bond market continues to put a low-probability on Tax Reform getting done by the end of the year. And if it is done, markets believe many of the most stimulative measures will be watered down to get the bill out of reconciliation. Any announced agreements/changes to the Tax Bill will have a significant impact on mortgage rates.
3) Domestic: We have a big week for economic releases outside of the Fed. Retail Sales will take center stage, and Core CPI (YOY) will get a lot of attention.
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