We are on the Cusp! by Chris Scheer, Cornerstone Mortgage, O'Fallon MO
Undeniably the stock market has become a Bear market. That means that the Dow industrial average is down more than 20%. Sooner or later, those investors are going to start to move to safer investments. What are safer investments you ask? Well I am going to suggest that Mortgage Backed Securities are safer investments. For the last 12 months, this investment has been out of favor with everyone from institutional investors to foreign investors. As housing prices have fallen drastically on both coasts the middle of the country has done a good job of holding value. The Countrywide Mortgage debacle has turned a corner and is now Bank of America's problem. The Fed has not had to rescue any more mortgage companies for the last 30 days. Second quarter earnings are being reported this week and by now all the major companies have figured out that they cannot hide the losses from the mortgage mess, so those will be dealt with in these reports.
That leaves us with mortgage backed securities in position to be an attractive investment again; especially the Ginnie Mae government loans. With over 70% of all loan applications that I am taking right now being for FHA or VA loans, I am confident that most other successful originators are doing the same. This will create a huge supply for these investments and the hawkers of these securities will have the product to sell and most of these properties will not be those that are going into foreclosure but being bought out of foreclosure by people who have the means and desire to make their mortgage payments. Sooner or later, Wall Street is going to start moving these securities and then the laws of economics will take over. As demand goes up so does price. On a bond, for those of you that don't remember, when the price goes up the yield (see interest rate) goes down. Thus, even though there is discussion of the Fed raising short term interest rates, what they really are hoping for is that the lowering of short term rates that they did months ago will finally take hold on the long rates and we will see the 30 year fixed rate get below 6% again.
Now I realize that this is optimistic thinking on my part, but if you listen to the doom and gloom prognosticators out there saying that the economy and the stock market are still in for tougher times, someone has to be willing to bet on the bond market. Today I am that person!!!
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