Is the real estate price really going down? How do you feel it? And, how much, if any? What about the commercial real estate market?
The price analysis of sold items in the NJMLS data helps have a small taste of how much price changes sellers and buyers think acceptable with time lapses.
| BERGEN | Palisades Park | |||||||||
| COMMERCIAL | RESIDENTIAL | |||||||||
| 2Yr as of 7/31/08 | 2007&2008 | |||||||||
| OVERALL | Price Cut | No Change | Price Up | TOTAL | OVERALL | Price Cut | No Change | Price Up | TOTAL | |
| Count | 137 | 16 | 14 | 167 | Count | 251 | 9 | 6 | 266 | |
| 82.0% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 100.0% | 94.4% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 100.0% | |||
| Amount | 135,032,500 | 15,513,000 | 12,889,900 | 163,435,400 | Amount | 142,897,615 | 5,199,000 | 3,388,000 | 151,484,615 | |
| 82.6% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 100.0% | 94.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 100.0% | |||
| AVG DOM | 146 | 90 | 92 | 136 | AVG DOM | 147 | 46 | 47 | 142 | |
| Price Change | -10.8% | 0.0% | 4.6% | -8.8% | Price Change | -5.6% | 0.0% | 5.6% | -5.2% | |
| vs. Listing Pr | vs. Listing Pr | |||||||||
| Price Change | -13.8% | 0.0% | 5.4% | -11.3% | Price Change | -8.3% | 0.0% | 2.4% | -7.8% | |
| vs. Original Pr | vs. Original Pr | |||||||||
The above chart shows most sold items went through a considerable price cut. Commercial properties, generally speaking, were sold at a much higher discount. In other words, commercial wouldn't be as transparent as residential in figuring out the right market price.
| BERGEN | Palisades Park | ||||||||
| COMMERCIAL | RESIDENTIAL | ||||||||
| 2Yr as of 7/31/08 | 2007&2008 | ||||||||
| PRICE CUT' | Sold 1Yr | Sold 2Yr | TOTAL | PRICE CUT' | Sold 2008 | Sold 2007 | TOTAL | ||
| Count | 55 | 82 | 137 | Count | 58 | 193 | 251 | ||
| 40.0% | 60.0% | 100.0% | 23.1% | 60.0% | 100.0% | ||||
| Amount | 56,297,500 | 78,735,000 | 135,032,500 | Amount | 31,841,975 | 111,055,640 | 142,897,615 | ||
| 41.7% | 58.3% | 100.0% | 22.3% | 77.7% | 100.0% | ||||
| AVG DOM | 144 | 148 | 146 | AVG DOM | 151 | 146 | 147 | ||
| Price Change | -12.5% | -9.6% | -10.8% | Price Change | -6.6% | -5.4% | -5.6% | ||
| vs. Listing Pr | vs. Listing Pr | ||||||||
| Price Change | -15.4% | -12.6% | -13.8% | Price Change | -9.0% | -8.1% | -8.3% | ||
| vs. Original Pr | vs. Original Pr | ||||||||
Commercial properties in Bergen County were sold less in count and amount and at a deeper discount last one year than the previous one year ending 7/31/07. The price cut got deeper by 3.0% point in one year. Residential properties in Palisades Park were sold much less so far in 2008 comapred to 2007, but the price cut change remained 1.0% point deeper.
| BERGEN | Palisades Park | |||||||||
| COMMERCIAL | RESIDENTIAL | |||||||||
| 2Yr as of 7/31/08 | 2007&2008 | |||||||||
| PRICE CUT | Under 500K | 501K~1M | Over 1M | TOTAL | PRICE CUT | Under 500K | 501K~650K | Over 650K | TOTAL | |
| Count | 39 | 67 | 31 | 137 | Count | 68 | 112 | 71 | 251 | |
| 28.5% | 48.9% | 22.6% | 100.0% | 27.1% | 44.6% | 28.3% | 100.0% | |||
| Amount | 14,618,000 | 50,691,000 | 69,723,500 | 135,032,500 | Amount | 24,754,475 | 64,805,140 | 53,338,000 | 142,897,615 | |
| 10.8% | 37.5% | 51.6% | 100.0% | 17.3% | 45.4% | 37.3% | 100.0% | |||
| AVG DOM | 165 | 141 | 135 | 146 | AVG DOM | 111 | 138 | 197 | 147 | |
| Price Change | -12.8% | -11.2% | -10.1% | -10.8% | Price Change | -7.7% | -5.3% | -5.1% | -5.6% | |
| vs. Listing Pr | vs. Listing Pr | |||||||||
| Price Change | -19.2% | -15.3% | -11.3% | -13.8% | Price Change | -10.3% | -8.1% | -7.5% | -8.3% | |
| vs. Original Pr | vs. Original Pr | |||||||||
Commercial properties under $500,000 went through a deeper price cut comapred to large ones and average days on market prolonged by about a month. In contrast, residential properties under $500,000 in Palisades Park were sold at a deeper price cut, but relatively handy houses were absorbed much faster than larger ones.
| BERGEN | Palisades Park | ||||||||||
| COMMERCIAL | RESIDENTIAL | ||||||||||
| 2Yr as of 7/31/08 | 2007&2008 | ||||||||||
| PRICE CUT | DOM 1/2YR | DOM 1YR | DOM Over 1 | TOTAL | PRICE CUT | DOM 3Mon | DOM 1/2YR | DOM 1YR | DOM Over1 | TOTAL | |
| Count | 97 | 31 | 9 | 137 | Count | 97 | 81 | 58 | 15 | 251 | |
| 70.8% | 22.6% | 6.6% | 100.0% | 38.6% | 32.3% | 23.1% | 6.0% | 100.0% | |||
| Amount | 97,599,500 | 29,843,000 | 7,590,000 | 135,032,500 | Amount | 52,052,975 | 44,644,500 | 35,007,640 | 11,592,500 | 143,297,615 | |
| 72.3% | 22.1% | 5.6% | 100.0% | 36.3% | 31.2% | 24.4% | 8.1% | 100.0% | |||
| AVG DOM | 82 | 254 | 470 | 146 | AVG DOM | 50.33 | 128.7 | 244 | 502.5 | 147.4 | |
| Price Change | -10.3% | -12.1% | -12.5% | -10.8% | Price Change | -5.6% | -6.0% | -5.2% | -5.8% | -5.6% | |
| vs. Listing Pr | vs. Listing Pr | ||||||||||
| Price Change | -11.6% | -16.2% | -28.0% | -13.8% | Price Change | -6.9% | -8.4% | -9.0% | -11.8% | -8.3% | |
| vs. Original Pr | vs. Original Pr | ||||||||||
The more stressed on the market, the more price cut, in general. Commercial properties that stay less than a half year on the market barely lower their listing prices. But most commercial properties take a more than 10% discount on average when sold.
Residential properries in Plisades Park show some reasonable cuts in listing prices with time lapses and also take a 5.5% discount on average when sold.
Of course, there may be rare cases where multiple offers compete to wind up going over the listing prices, but these seem as yet far from the reality most people stand on.
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