Long Term Rates Set Another Record...but where are the appraisals?

I would be very happy if we see 10-20 rushes in my mailbox!  I don't know about the self imposed AMC deadline - as I have not seen any increase from AMCs either in my area.  Just steady normal - but not BUSY like it was this time last year either. 

2008 was by far the worst year ever in my 15 years for volume....well..maybe 1997 was bad too.  But beyond that - 2009 can only get better (I hope!)

James and Michael, I am VERY happy to hear your volume is picking up!  Michael and Ed - I think Florida must have been left out of the refi "boom"!

I would bet that since many lenders are already upside down on what is owed versus what it's worth...they are refinancing homeowners without appraisals.  I would bet they figure they are already on the hook for the mortgage - so they might as well make some fees on a refi closing.

I did get a couple of new orders today - all from AMCs - and the rest is some continued forclosure work files. 

I would hope that FHA picks up soon as well - it is certainly the next "nothing down" product for our area.  I am noticing most new purchases are REO sales with new FHA financing. 

That is the catch 22 huh Paul?  You can't order an appraisal without establishing value, but you can't establish value without ordering an appraisal.

Now I know......you are talking about a "ball park" figure (i.e. "comp check") - and this is likely a topic for a whole other thread.  But an appraiser cannot establish a value without following the steps to complete an appraisal.  So it is a rock and a hard place.  That is, if you are talking with ethical appraisers who are doing their job right according to Federal laws.

One move I am making to try to meet the needs of mortgage professionals such as yourself, is to offer an analysis of the market from a software program.  My criteria would be - I can pull all of the sales for the last 5-10 years from the MLS within a 1 mile radius around the property.  Then, based solely on the assessor's data for the home, the program will give an analysis of the market - sort of like and AVM or Zillow.  It would give you a value range based on all of the history of sales.  You would need a true appraisal though, to weed through which sales are valid and applicable and which are not.  It is sort of a "mass appraisal" perspective - yet from MLS data rather than something like Zillow which pulls from assessor records only - and typically does not pull accurate geographical areas for comparison.

With something like this - it would be considered an "appraiser assisted AVM" - and would at least give you that "ball park" figure you need - without the appraiser having to do an hour's worth of research to build a desktop appraisal and workfile.  Would this be of interest to someone in your profession?

Paul - also tell me this.  From a broker/lender perspective - would you be willing to pay an appraiser to do market research ahead of time?  Say a fee to do a desk appraisal?  What kind of fee would you be willing to pay if the answer is yes?

If the appraiser will not do a "free comp check" for you - then where do you look to establish your value ahead of time?  Zillow, Cyberhomes.com or another appraiser? 

I am interested in your feedback.