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Consumers' Inflation Expectations Rebound Again
Consumers' Inflation Expectations Rebound
Results from the February 2016 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) suggest a rebound in expectations about inflation, and growth in home prices, earnings, income and spending. Additional labor expectations are mixed as the mean perceived probability of finding a job and the mean perceived probability of losing a job both declined.Median inflation expectations increased at the one-year horizon (from 2.4 percent in January to 2.7 percent in February) and at the three-year ahead horizon (from 2.5 percent in January to 2.6 percent in February). The increase was most pronounced among respondents with lower income, lower education and lower numeracy. Median inflation expectations at both horizons, however, remain at the low end of the range observed over the past two and a half years.Median home price expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point in February to 3.1 percent, but remain below the series’ average.  The increase was broad-based, but especially large in the West and Northeast.The median one-year ahead gasoline price change expectations rebounded sharply, from 2.8 percent in January to 4.9 percent in February. This increase marks a return to levels not seen since the summer of 2015.Expectations for changes in the prices of medical care, college education, and ... more

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