mortgage purchase applications: Mortgage Purchase Applications Showing Stability - 08/27/09 01:15 AM
The MBA reported on Wednesday that the mortgage purchase application index rose 1% this past week to 280.5.
While the reading of 280.5 does not represent overly encouraging demand for real estate, the index has slowly risen for four consecutive weeks.
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose from 5.15% to 5.24% for the week ending August 21st.
Between the recent surges in existing and new home sales, as well as the past four weeks of mortgage purchase applications, it appears that demand has stabilized thanks to precipitous home value declines, an $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit, and a $1.25 trillion Fed funny … (2 comments)

mortgage purchase applications: Mortgage Purchase Applications Struggle To Gain Ground - 08/06/09 01:49 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association announced on Wednesday that the mortgage purchase application index rose just 0.9% from the previous week to 264.4.
This is the fourth consecutive week in which the index has remained below 265, a signal that demand for real estate continues to face a headwind.
The broader measure for the purchase index, the 4-week moving average, is down -2%.
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell from 5.36% to 5.17%.
While the NAR's pending home sales index continues to show strength, the MBA's purchase application index is telling a different story.
The reason this index is relevant is because it … (4 comments)

mortgage purchase applications: MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Unchanged - 07/30/09 01:24 AM
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the rate of mortgage purchase applications for the week ending July 24th remained unchanged from the previous week at 262.
The problem is that an index of 262 indicates continued weak demand for real estate.  After hitting a 12-week high of 285.6 for the week ending July 3rd, the index has struggled the past three weeks at 258.8, 262.1, and now 262. 
The concern is that while home sales seem to have stabilized and fallen into a sustainable range, the current pace of home sales is insufficient in dealing with the pace of foreclosure filings which have surged 33% year … (1 comments)

mortgage purchase applications: MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Inch Up - 07/22/09 04:19 PM
After falling 9.4% last week to a 7-week low, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage purchaseapplications moderated and rose 1.3% to 262.1.  This was despite the fact that the 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped from 5.05% to 5.31% for the week ending July 17th.
The 262.1 reading represents continued reluctance of consumers to apply for new credit to purchase real estate despite record housing affordability and an $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit.
In fact, neither the historically low mortgage rates nor the $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit has had any meaningful impact on demand.  Here is a … (3 comments)

mortgage purchase applications: MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Jump To 12-Week High - 07/08/09 01:26 AM
Despite the 30-year fixed rate mortgage remaining unchanged at 5.34%, the seasonally adjusted mortgage purchase application index jumped 6.7% to 285.6 for the week ending July 3rd.
This is the highest the index has been since the week of April 3rd when it rose to 297.7 and the 30-year fixed was at 4.73%.
Additionally, the four-week moving average for the purchase index, a more consistent indicator, shows that the purchase index is up 1.4% despite the fact that mortgage rates have spiked this past month.
New data continues to reveal that demand for real estate has been unaffected by rising rates, much … (3 comments)

mortgage purchase applications: Mortgage Purchase Applications Hold Steady - 06/10/09 02:29 AM
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association and their weekly survey of applications, mortgage purchase applications are holding steady despite a recent surge in mortgage rates.
The purchase application index rose 1.1% from last week to 270.7 despite the 30-year fixed rate mortgage surging from 5.25% to 5.57%.
Not that anybody should be surprised by this "resilience" as there has been virtually no stimulative impact on demand for mortgage purchase applications or demand for real estate as rates plunged to historic lows.
Here is a comparison between NAR's seasonally adjusted existing home sales and Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate mortgage survey over the past several months:
Sep … (4 comments)

mortgage purchase applications: Mortgage Purchase Applications Indifferent To Rising Rates - 06/04/09 03:27 PM
Despite mortgage rates surging from 4.81% to 5.25% for the past week, mortgage purchase applications increased 4.3% to a reading of 267.7.
While 267.7 is still not indicative of strong demand for real estate, what is interesting is that at least for the interim, demand was not negatively impacted by rising rates, nor will it be as long as rates stay below 6%.
Over the past several months, going all the way back to December 3rd of 2008, when mortgages rates plunged from 5.99% to 5.47%, demand for real estate has been largely unaffected by historically low mortgage rates.
Here is … (2 comments)

mortgage purchase applications: Mortgage Purchase Applications Off Of Their 8-Week Low - 05/07/09 03:49 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association announced on Wednesday that the mortgage purchase application rose 5% to 264.3 despite the 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumping from 4.62% to 4.79%.
While the reading of 264.3 is an increase from the previous weeks' reading which was an 8-week low, the 4-week moving average is still down -3.1% for the mortgage purchase application index. 
The important question that these numbers bring up is whether or not we will see a surge in home sales during the summer season as many people have been hoping for.  What we do know is that as major foreclosure moratoriums have expired in March, we can … (3 comments)

mortgage purchase applications: Mortgage Purchase Applications Sink To 8-Week Low - 04/30/09 03:31 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association released their weekly mortgage application survey on Wednesday which showed that the mortgage purchase application index has dipped to an 8-week low to 251.6.  This was despite the fact that the 30-year fixed rate mortgage declined from 4.73% to 4.62% this week.
The mortgage purchase application index has shown continued weakness over the past 13 weeks or approximately 3 months.  During this span the purchase application index has averaged only 258.  This would indicate that home sales in April, May, and possibly June will reflect weak demand for real estate.
To give this 258 number some perspective, the index hit a … (3 comments)

mortgage purchase applications: Mortgage Purchase Applications Dive Despite Historic Rates - 04/18/09 11:11 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association announced that mortgage purchase applications declined -11.3% to 264.1 from last week despite the 30-year fixed rate mortgage holding at 4.70%.
Despite the historically low mortgage rates, the four-week moving average for the purchase index is up just 0.6%.
What this index continues to communicate is that despite four consecutive weeks in which the 30-year mortgage has averaged 4.66%, there has not been any meaningful impact on demand for purchase mortgages applications or subsequently real estate. 
And the two reasons why low mortgage rates have not had a meaningful impact on demand is because housing affordability since December of 2008 has been the … (2 comments)

mortgage purchase applications: Mortgage Purchase Applications: Fact or Fiction - 04/11/09 08:27 AM
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage purchase applications hit a 10-week high when the index jumped 11.1% to 297.7; this despite the fact that the 30-year fixed rose from 4.61% to 4,73% this week.
The last time the index saw this type of strength was during the week ending January 28th when the index measured 294.3 and the 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 5.22%
What remains to be seen is whether or not the mortgage purchase applications will actually translate into home sales.  And the reason for my skepticism is that during December of 2008 and January of 2009, we … (4 comments)

mortgage purchase applications: Mortgage Purchase Applications Indifferent to Historic Rates - 04/01/09 05:33 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association published their weekly mortgage application survey which showed that mortgage purchase applications increased just 0.1% despite the 30-year fixed rate mortgage hovering at 4.61%, the lowest on record.
I have written about it several times before, the housing market is no longer being negatively impacted by housing affordability.  And as a result of this, the declines in mortgage rates that we are seeing which are a product of the $1.25 trillion that the Fed has invested in mortgage backed securities, are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on demand for real estate.
The problem is that Washington is still … (2 comments)

mortgage purchase applications: Mortgage purchase applications indifferent to lower rates - 03/26/09 06:05 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association released their weekly mortgage purchase application which showed that despite the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage plunging from 4.89% to 4.63% (the lowest on record for the survey since 1990), the seasonally adjusted purchase application index only increased 4.2% from 257.1 to 267.8. 
To give this 267.8 seasonally adjusted purchase index some context, during the week of November 26th of 2008 when the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 5.99%, the purchase index was 261.6.  In other words, despite the 30-year rate being nearly 1.4 points lower today than it was the last week of November of 2008, there is virtually … (2 comments)

mortgage purchase applications: Mortgage purchase applications still struggling - 03/18/09 07:39 AM
The mortgage bankers association announced today that despite a surge in refinance applications, purchase applications remain at depressed levels.
Specifically, the mortgage purchase index rose only 1.5% from last week to 257.1.  While this index is the highest it has been in four weeks, it is representative of very weak demand for real estate which will likely be reflected in the April and May home sales data. 
The index is also representative of the fact that the new $8,000 first time home buyer tax credit has not had any meaningful impact on demand.  On February 13th, Congress voted to approve the … (6 comments)

mortgage purchase applications: Mortgage purchase applications rebound, but still near recent lows - 02/18/09 04:01 AM
According to the mortgage bankers association, after hitting an eight year low last week and dipping -9.8%, mortgage purchase applications rebounded 9.1% this week from 235.9 to 257.3 on the index.  This is still the lowest index rating since the week of November 19th when it was 248.5 and the 30-year fixed rate mortgage was at 6.16%.
This week, according to the MBA, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage declined to 4.99%.
The reason why the mortgage purchase application index is relevant is because in order for the housing market to get price stability, we need to stimulate demand, and in order to stimulate … (0 comments)

mortgage purchase applications: Mortgage purchase applications sink again - 02/04/09 03:53 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association announced today that the seasonally adjusted purchase index decreased -11.2% to 261.4, its lowest index since November 26th of 2008 when it was at 261.6.  The 30-year fixed rate mortgage at that time was 5.99%, currently it stands at 5.28%.  In other words, despite rates being nearly 75 basis points lower today than during the week of November 26th, and despite the fact that we are past the holiday season and well into the new year, the demand for mortgage purchase applications is nearly unchanged, this is a problem.
The problem with this is that in order … (0 comments)

 
Mark MacKenzie

Mark MacKenzie

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