home loans: Daily Market Report 7/23/21 - 07/23/21 11:05 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Today, we have IHS Markit PMI releasing their 2 reports, Manufacturing and Services.  The Services sector dropped down to 59.7; however, the Manufacturing sector rose to 63.1 in July.  Stocks continue their upward trend, based on Q2 Corporate Earnings Reports and keeping an eye toward next week's schedule of events (Q2 Earnings Reports for much of the High Tech Companies and FOMC).  MBS started the morning much lower, which Lenders whom release their ratesheets earlier on may have priced for the worse; however, MBS is Up 6bps.  So, Mortgage Rates should be priced now to the same pricing we found … (1 comments)

home loans: Daily Market Report 7/22/21 - 07/22/21 11:15 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Initial Jobless Claims spiked last week to 419k (breaking back above the 400k level).  The good news is the Continued Claims dropped slightly.  NAR reported that Existing Home Sales increased from 5.78 million annualized units in May to 5.86 million in June.  Lastly, the Leading Indicators shows a 0.7% improvement for the month of June.  Stocks continue to rise today on continued strong Q2 Corporate Earnings releases.  MBS and Yields got a boost from the ECB's announcement today, which was very dovish and Bond friendly.  MBS is Up 19bps, which brings us back to same levels on Monday/Tuesday; whereas, … (1 comments)

home loans: Daily Market Report 7/21/21 - 07/21/21 11:33 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are no economic data to report today.  Stocks are continuing upward trend on more good Q2 Earnings Reports.  The ECB announced a bit of a dovish signal on their stance with inflation, which sounds similar to that of our Fed's current stance.  This set a tone for the Bond/Treasury Market.  MBS is currently Down 19bps, as Mortgage Rates worsen a bit today.  Yields jumped Up to 1.29%.
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home loans: Daily Market Report 7/20/21 - 07/20/21 11:01 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Housing Starts increased from (lower revision) of 1.546 million annualized units in May to 1.643 million, or up 6.3%, in June.  However, Building Permits declined by 5.1%, from 1.683 million annualized units in May to 1.598 million in June.  These, of course, are future Housing Starts.  We have seen a little bit of a pullback in Home Builders sentiment recently, so this isn't too surprising.  Stocks are rebounding after yesterday's big selloff.  Investors are buying back in, as sentiment is Monday's actions were a bit overblown.  MBS are off it's earlier highs, which better pricing was very short-lived.  Mortgage Rates … (1 comments)

home loans: Daily Market Report 7/19/21 - 07/19/21 10:54 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The NAHB Home Builder Sentiment dropped one point to 80 for June.  This index gauges the confidence with Home Builders.  This week will mostly be about housing data.  Stocks are WAY Down today (comparable to last October).  Investors are concerned that the Markets may have Peaked and the rising Delta variant cases globally.  Along with that, Investors are watching tensions rise between the US and China.  MBS Is Up 31bps, as Mortgage Rates improve from Friday's close.  Yields plunged all the way down to just under 1.19%.
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home loans: Daily Market Report 7/15/21 - 07/15/21 09:57 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Philly Fed dropped from 30.7 in June to 21.9 in July.  This is still a great number; however, the size of the drop is a bit alarming.  Jobless Claims continue to improve, as 360k applied for first time benefits last week.  This is a new low, not seen since last March.  Also, we're seeing improvement with Continued Claims, as more people are going back to work.  The Empire State Index rose to an all time high in July, as it jumped from 17.4 in June to 43.0 in July.  Lastly, Industrial Productions came in below estimates (0.6%) in June … (0 comments)

home loans: Daily Market Report 7/14/21 - 07/14/21 10:07 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Both the Producer Price Index headline number (PPI) and it's Core PPI (excludes food and energy) rose 1.0% MoM in June.  The Core PPI is now up to 5.6% YoY, which brings us to inflationary levels last seen in 2008 when price of a barrel of oil reached all time highs of $150/barrel.  Stocks are back in Positive Territory after yesterday's losses.  We will receive more Q2 Corporate Earnings Reports today; and Fed Chair Powell has testified before the House Finance Committee today.  Nothing has changed, but the Investors like hearing the message repeated.  MBS is regaining it's losses yesterday; … (1 comments)

home loans: Daily Market Report 7/13/21 - 07/13/21 09:43 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Core CPI (excludes food & energy) rose 0.9% in June.  The CPI rose from 5.0% in May to 5.4% in June; while, the Core CPI rose from 3.8% in May to 4.5% in June.  This is the highest spike we've seen in 30 years (Sept, 1991).  Markets initially reacted negatively, but has since subsided.  Currently, only the DOW is in Negative Territory.  Q2 Corporate Earnings Reports are beginning to be released, as several of the Major financial institutions (like Chase and Goldman Sachs) released their reports today.  Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged, as … (0 comments)

home loans: Daily Market Report 7/12/21 - 07/12/21 11:05 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Nothing really on the Economic Calendar; however, there are some Treasury Auctions this morning (3yr and 10yr).  The 3yr didn't go as well as hoped and did negatively affect the Markets (usually it doesn't impact); and the 10yr came in rather decent, which wiped out the negative movement caused by the 3yr.  Stocks are Mixed today, as NASDAQ is the lone index in the Red.  Investors are primarily looking ahead for this week's data.  This week, we have the beginning of Q2 Corporate Earnings Reports, Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual Testimony and a new look at Inflation data (CPI and PPI). … (0 comments)

home loans: Daily Market Report 7/9/21 - 07/09/21 11:38 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Wholesale Inventories rose 1.3% in May.  Meanwhile, Stocks are rebounding today, after a bit of a pullback the last few days.  They're expected to end the week on a high note.  Investors are torn between "good news and Fed tapering sooner" and "bad news and keeping the easy money flowing".  Next week, they'll have a bit more of a distraction, as Corporations release their Q2 Earnings Reports.  Currently MBS is Down 22bps, so Mortgage Rates are off by about an .125% to it's rate.  They and Yields are currently looking for it's next range, so we'll experiences some of these … (0 comments)

home loans: Daily Market Report 7/8/21 - 07/08/21 11:18 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Initial Jobless Claims revised last week's report from 364k to 371k; and reported this week at 373k.  However, we are still seeing a dropoff in the Continued Claims (by nearly 150k) from last week.  Stocks are Down on the trend of Yields dropping today.  Investors are changing their worries of surging inflation to is this all the growth we'll see (?) attitude.  Yields seem to be falling more on a Technical level, which has many Investors confused.  It touched near a new Technical level (1.25%) and is currently sitting at 1.29%.  Investors are also keeping an eye on the … (1 comments)

home loans: Daily Market Report 7/7/21 - 07/07/21 09:09 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Later today, the FOMC Minutes will be released, which will be our most impactful economic data for this week (as it will be a rather light week).  However, the BLS released a report showing that there were 9.2 million Job Openings for the month of May.  The Markets are holding back today, as NASDAQ goes into the Red.  MBS are currently Up 6bps, but it's still within our range yesterday, after it pulled back some to close +22bps.  This basically means that Mortgage Rates remain Unchanged from yesterday's pricing.  Yields continue their decent, as it hit 1.31%, and it currently … (1 comments)

home loans: Daily Market Report 7/6/21 - 07/06/21 09:33 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The drop in the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, from 64.0 in May to 60.1 in June, added fuel to the fire today, as trading was very light until the report was released.  Stocks are all in Negative Territory this morning.  This piece of data is really the only thing being reported today, which is having the most impact with the Markets.  However, MBS is Up 27bps, so Mortgage Rates have seen an improvement with their pricing today.  Yields have fallen below another Technical level to just under 1.37%.  These levels haven't been seen since end of February/early March.
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home loans: Daily Market Report 7/2/21 - 07/02/21 12:07 PM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  We receive Job data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) today, for  which is the catalyst we've been waiting all week.  The Average Earnings rose only 0.3% in June, while the Average Work Week (in hours) dropped to 34.7 hrs.  The Non-Farm Payrolls came in above estimates, at 850k for June; however, it's Unemployment Rate rose to 5.9%.  The Unemployment Rate rose because more people entered the workforce.  Investors are liking the Jobs data enough to feel it's "not too hot, nor not too cold", whereas the Fed would pull it's tapering too soon.  As a result, Stocks are … (0 comments)

home loans: Daily Market Report 7/1/21 - 07/01/21 11:45 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 364k last week, which is a new low since the Pandemic hit; so, solid numbers!  The ISM Manufacturing dropped from 61.2 in May to 60.6 in June.  The data disappointed, but is still solid, as anything over 50 is in expansion territory.  Manufacturing is dealing with large backlogs of new orders while dealing with supply and labor shortage issues.  Lastly, Construction Spending dropped 0.3% in May.  Stocks are in Mixed Territory, as NASDAQ is being weighed down by higher Yields (up to 1.48% currently).  There are a few Fed Speakers, so Investors will keep … (1 comments)

home loans: Daily Market Report 6/30/21 - 06/30/21 11:22 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  The ADP revised it's May report from 978k private payroll jobs to 886k.  However, June's data exceeded it forecasts of 600k by reporting 692k jobs.  The revision in May's data made this more or less a wash.  Business activity in the Chicago region dropped in June, after hitting it's highest number in May since 1983.  The Chicago PMI reported 66.1 for June.  Anything above 50 is considered expansion, so it's still doing well.  Lastly, NAR reported that Pending Home Sales rose 8.0% in May after forecasts called for nearly a 1% drop.  Stocks are trading in Mixed Territory.  We enter … (1 comments)

home loans: Daily Market Report 6/29/21 - 06/29/21 10:10 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There are 2 Home Price Indices (HPI) being reported today.  The Case Shiller HPI, which measures the 20 largest Markets went up 1.6% in April and up 14.9% YoY.  Meanwhile, the FHFA HPI, which measures homes with conventional loan programrs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac),  rose 1.8% in April and up 15.7% YoY.  Lastly, Consumer Confidence spiked to 127.3 in June.  Stocks are Up today!  Banks passed their Stress Tests yesterday and 5 of the 6 largest banks announced an increase in their Dividends.  This boosted their stocks; as it also boosted it's sector.  Fed Member Barkin spoke today, which … (0 comments)

home loans: Daily Market Report 6/28/21 - 06/28/21 11:12 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  There's no economic data to report today; however, this week is Jobs report week.  The ADP will deliver their Private Payrolls on Wednesday; Initial Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday; and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will provide their Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate on Friday.  Stocks are Mixed today, NASDAQ rebounds on improvement with Yields, as they drop back down to 1.47% range.  Another reason why this week can be a bit choppy in Stocks is it's Quarter end.  Portfolio Managers tend to rebalance their portfolios during this time.  MBS is Up 22bps, so we're seeing improvement … (0 comments)

home loans: Daily Market Report 6/25/21 - 06/25/21 11:15 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Big data day today, as we receive the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE).  The Headline PCE rose 0.4% in May, while it's YoY rose from 3.6% in April to 3.9% in May.  The real Inflation, or Core PCE, is derived when you exclude food and energy, which rose 0.5% in May; and it's YoY rose from 3.1% in April to 3.4% in May.  So, the 3.4% is the number that the Fed determines as our inflation on a year-over-year basis.  Typically, they want it at 2.0%; however, they've been stating the bottle neck with the … (0 comments)

home loans: Daily Market Report 6/24/21 - 06/24/21 11:48 AM
http://MikesDailyMarketReport.com:  Last week's Initial Jobless Claims were revised higher, from 412k to 418k; and this week's report came in at 411k.  This missed the forecasts of 380k, which economists were projecting.  Durable Goods revised their April data to slightly better, from -1.3% to -0.8%; and improved to 2.3%.  Some were disappointed with this number, as it missed it's forecasts by 0.5%, but when you see that it's revision was improved by 0.5%, then it's almost a wash.  Q1 GDP released it's final revision, which remained unchanged at 6.4%.  Next month, then we'll get an initial view of Q2 GDP.  Stocks are … (0 comments)

Mike Bjork (Evolve Bank & Trust)

Mike Bjork

Redondo Beach, CA

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Evolve Bank & Trust

Address: PO Box 998, Redondo Beach, CA, 90277

Office: (310) 694-3544

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