July 2009 Real Estate Market Shows Mixed Results
By Brian Madigan LL.B.
Here is the latest report from the Toronto Real Estate Board:
"GTA REALTORS® report sales up first two weeks of July
TORONTO, July 20, 2009 -
In the first two weeks of July, Greater Toronto REALTORS reported 4,437 sales up 27 per cent compared to the first two weeks of July 2008.
The average price for these transactions was up four per cent year-over-year to $394,750.
"The resurgence in home ownership demand experienced in the spring has continued into the summer. Home buyers continued to take advantage affordable market conditions in the first half of July," said TREB President Tom Lebour. "If the mid-month results carry forward, we may see the best July on record."
Year-to-date sales, at 45,213 are down four per cent compared to 2008. Average price, at $384,645 is down one per cent.
"The GTA housing market has held up very well this year given the current economic climate, especially relative to past economic slow-downs," explained Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.
"The cost of borrowing has been key. With inflation in check, the Bank of Canada has been able to aggressively lower interest rates - an option that wasn't available in the early 1990s or early 1980s."
Summary Of July Sales Volumes and Average Prices
Note: July 2009 are shown with July 2008 in brackets
City of Toronto ("416")
Sales: 1,703 (1,369)
Prices: $419,754 ($419,199)
Rest of GTA ("905")
Sales: 2,734 (2,128)
Prices: $379,174 ($353,257)
GTA
Sales: 4,437 (3,497)
Prices: $394,750 ($379,072)
That was the full TREB report. But remember, TREB compares statistics annually, while the actual factual information is available bi-monthly.
So, which way is the market going? Up or down?
For a correct answer to that question we have to look at the average price of a single family home in the GTA. As of 30 June 2009, two weeks ago, that number stood at $403,972.
Let's have look at the average prices over the last few weeks:
$394,750.....15 July
$403,972.....30 June
$407,716.....15 June
$395,609.....31 May
$385,601.....30 April
So, that's just a little less than the end of May, down 2.28% in two weeks and down 3.18% in a month, off the June 15th high.
What does this mean? Maybe nothing! Remember that TREB compares results annually, so that smoothes out the bumps. The market is "up" from last year. But, this year, the market had been rising until June 15th, then it tipped over.
The annual highs are usually reached in May each year. Then there are cyclical declines in the summer months and a resurgence in the Fall. The October figures frequently match the May numbers. This may simply be in motion again.
Longer term, real estate has always proven to be a good investment.
Brian Madigan LL.B., Realtor is an author and commentator on real estate matters, Royal LePage Innovators Realty
905-796-8888
www.OntarioRealEstateSource.com
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