Looking At The 2010 Predictions For Housing Markets And Mortgage Rates

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Real Estate Agent with CONLON/Christie's International Real Estate

 

2010 housing and mortgage predictions are guesses2010 is just a few days old and already the "experts" are making predictions for the year.

Housing calls and mortgage rate predictions run the gamut:

Given how varied their outlooks, it's clear that the professionals have no better view of the future than the amateurs. An expert can make an educated guess, but it's a guess nonetheless.

Last year, Wall Streeters predicted a 25% pullback in home prices. 12 months later, we know prices didn't fall.  Wall Street also predicted higher mortgage rates for 2009. That prediction was fulfilled.

There's a lot of talk on CNBC and elsewhere about what's coming in 2010. Before you take those predictions to the bank, just remember that analysts do a much better job interpreting data from the past than projecting it into the future.

The only thing that's certain right now is that mortgage rates are historically low, the government is giving tax credits to qualified buyers, and there's a lot of good "deals" in housing. Make the most of what's out there today because it will take 12 months for us to look back and know which predictions were right and which were wrong.

Until then, predictions are just opinions and guesses.

 

Posted by Michael LaFido on January 05, 2010 | Tags: Market Predictions

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Rainmaker
171,157
Diane Osowiecki
Diane O and Friends - Benchmark Realty - Franklin, TN
Greater Nashville Real Estate

It amazes me.  If we continue to say the market is bad .... it will live up to our expectations.

Jan 05, 2010 08:51 AM #1
Rainmaker
261,940
Barb & Sal Dragotta
Macomb, MI
Macomb County Michigan

Michael...being a close neighbor to Michigan, you are wise to caution anyone to take 'predictions' with a big grain of salt. Not sure what Weaton's stats are; I do know that it is difficult to do CMA's here in Macomb Co. Michigan-much less predict what will happen in the area in 2010.
Diane above references the oft-overused  method in Education --"Prophecy fulfilled" where if you say it often enough, get enough folks to agree, & you are in good standing in 'intelligence rating'-you as the educator can correctly predict whichstudent will succeed. Unfortunately, this is often based on the "predictors' bias. Spare us from the experts & analysts in our Profession from doing the same.  

Jan 05, 2010 09:21 AM #3
Rainmaker
565,035
Steve, Joel & Steve A. Chain
Chain Real Estate Investments & Mortgage, Steve & Joel Chain - Cottonwood, CA

Michael, Perhaps it's hardest to predict a market using fundamentals when the "wildcard" of government policy can be played at anytime.

Steve

Jan 05, 2010 02:47 PM #4
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Michael LaFido

It's Not The Market, It's The Marketing!
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