What Will Real Estate Look Like Tomorrow?

It depends on the marketplace.  In some market areas, a seller needs a lot more marketing and service if they hope to achieve a decent price for their home.  Whatever kind of brokerage model the seller selects, he or she may need more service, not less, if they hope to succeed.

FSBO sellers and those who select the "discount" option have the most success when homes are moving rapidly.  In a challenging market, I don't see either FSBOs or discount brokers having huge success in my marketplace.

I would disagree with the definition of Traditional Brokerage being a fixed percentage.  Anti-trust laws forbid price fixing and the vast majority of brokers know that commission rates are negotiable.

I also must disagree with the definition of Discount Brokers as "do a little bit of the work and save a lot of money".  I have a neighbor who has wound up doing all the work (showings, open houses, taking photos and creating marketing materials) and achieving no offers after listing with a "discount broker" for over a year.  In my opinion, if you don't get a sale, where's the saving?

Discount brokerage = less service.  Less service allows bad things to happen to the seller and/or buyers.  When bad things happen in a transaction = unsatisfied customers.  

If A=B and B=C then A=C... so Discount brokerage can = unsatisfied customers. (Not on every transaction)

Satisfied customers drive referrals to full service brokers.  Unsatisfied customers drive away referrals and drive in attorneys.

I think my reasoning is not that far out of line... do you?  

Robert,

Again, I'd say it depends on the property being sold.  Rebates and incentives work well when the seller is operating under the assumption that all properties are more or less alike, that all will likely sell within a given period of time and that all agents are pretty much alike in terms of their marketing skill and capabilities.

What happens when it's a $500,000-plus or $1 million-plus property in an upscale area and the potential pool of buyers is much smaller?  If a property requires highly-targeted marketing to reach an unusually small segment of buyers, is the seller going to hire a cut-rate brokerage to get the job done?  Will that company spend what's necessary to target marketing to the buyer who can actually afford such a property?

If dollars were the only consideration in a decision to list, I agree discounts, rebates and similar incentives would win out.  But a lot of smart sellers realize that there are more factors involved.  I don't think that will change much over time.