We see from a Census Bureau report that seasonally-adjusted, single-family Housing Starts were up in March by 8 percent over February's 2-year low.
But don't take this data too literally, because there is a statistical problem in the data's margin or error.
As noted in the footnotes, there's no "statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change [in Housing Starts] is different from zero."
It is possible that housing starts went down or up, given this margin of error.
What may be more noteworthy is Building Permits data. As compared to February, permits were up by 6%. Permits can be a good forward indicator of housing.
After permits are issued, 86 percent of them will typically start construction within 60 days. The implication is that new home sales and housing stock should follow the Building Permits report trend, but on a 2-month delay.
All four regions showed increases last month:
- Northeast : +2.6 %t from February
- Midwest : +10.0 % from February
- South : +5.3 % from February
- West : +5.3 % from February
Amidst all of the other challenges, this may be at least one good piece of information.
Will the market be less favorable for those looking at new construction say five or six months from now? That is certainly possible. In any case, if you are looking at homes for sale in Chantilly or elsewhere in Northern Virginia, we will help you get the best deal either on new construction, normal resales, or distressed properties.
Let me know how we can help. We are here for you!
[The Kathy O’Neal Team serves home buyers and sellers in Northern Virginia, with special focus on Chantilly, Centreville, and the communities of the Western Fairfax region.]
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