Market Insider
Treasuries and mortgages tried early to hold slight price gains but by 9:00 the 10 yr was a little lower in price and mortgages -3/32 (.09 bp) frm yesterday's close. Stock indexes early were a little better with crude oil and gold higher. Crude being pushed higher this morning on a huge fire in Canada's oil fields where most have been evacuated. No economic releases today except the weekly MBA mortgage applications at 7:00 this morning.
One propellant for the recent decline in rates is built on the view that the softer economic outlook will keep the Fed from increasing interest rates until at least the 1st Q of 2012. The Fed is unlikely to increase rates with little inflationary fears now, but does that in itself justify present low interest rates? The recent decline is mostly a safety move; with equity markets not advancing, commodity price increases are over for the moment, and borrowing demand very weak. Every technical indicator we use in our near term forecasting is bullish, from a trading perspective we are bullish, from a fundamental longer outlook we are not so optimistic. We expect the end is closing in on these low levels, that said we are not expecting a rapid increase in rates----a slow grind higher. For now take advantage of the gifts mortgage rates are providing.
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