Orange County foreclosures are rising at a faster rate than they did during the last significant housing slump, in the 1990s, according to an Orange County Register analysis of DataQuick numbers.
For example, last month there were more than 500 foreclosures in the county; 12 months earlier there were about 100 foreclosures in a single month.
In the 1990s, the growth to more than 500 foreclosures a month from more than 100 a month took 55 months.
Yet some economists say the two housing slumps are apples and oranges.
Walter Hahn, a real estate economist in Irvine who has analyzed several housing cycles, said the loose lending of the boom that preceded the bust far outpaced anything in the '90s. This time around "anyone with a pulse" could get a home loan, and lenders pushed low teaser rates offered for one year to five years, he said.
"There is no point in fooling around with historical data, because we have never seen anything like this," Hahn said.
Foreclosures will keep skyrocketing for a year as teaser rates end on many more loans, Hahn said. The low starter rates will continue to end through 2011, though in smaller numbers over time.
However, the housing slump could drag on even longer than 2011 if a recession occurs, he said - the opposite of what happened in the '90s, when job losses preceded a housing correction.
By another measure, foreclosures are rising more quickly than in the 1990s.
In both the '90s and this downturn, the first quarter to have three consecutive months with more than 100 foreclosures was a fourth quarter: The fourth quarter of 1991 had 442 foreclosures; the fourth quarter of 2006 had 327 foreclosures. (The Register looked at months with at least 100 foreclosures.)
Starting from those two quarters, the Register looked at percentage gains in foreclosures quarter vs. quarter. For example, first-quarter 1992 vs. fourth-quarter 1991, for a 17 percent gain, compared with first-quarter 2007 vs. fourthquarter 2006 for a 59 percent gain in foreclosures.
The result: Quarterly foreclosures are increasing two to three times more quickly than in the '90s.
Developers have built about 90,000 houses and condos since 1992, so foreclosures today make up a smaller percentage of total housing stock. (The total excludes stacked condos, including those in new highrises.)
However, the number of sales in a given month is on par with that during the ‘90s slump. Back then, monthly sales ranged from 2,000 to 3,000 homes, occasionally dipping to less than 2,000. This time around, sales are in a similar pattern, with only 1,700 homes sold last month.
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