Associated Press
WASHINGTON - A trade group for real estate agents predicted Tuesday that the pace of U.S. home sales will pick up significantly in the second half of 2008, bringing total sales for the year marginally higher than in 2007.
The monthly forecast from the National Association of Realtors, calls for U.S. existing home sales to increase 0.7 percent this year to 5.7 million, up from a projected 5.66 million last year. Final results for U.S. home sales in 2007 are expected to be down 12.7 percent from 6.48 million in 2006, the Realtors group said.
The Realtors group's forecast for 2008 was unchanged from last month. The trade group also forecast 5.91 million home sales in 2009. up to 5.70 million this year and 5.91 million in 2009.
"The exact timing and the strength of a home sales recovery is a bit uncertain," Lawrence Yun, the group's chief economist said in a statement. "A meaningful recovery in existing-home sales could occur as early as this spring, or it may be further delayed toward late 2008."
Numerous economists, however, are much more pessimistic about the housing market this year and are predicting far lower home sales.
The trade group also said its index that forecasts near-term home sales fell 2.6 percent in November from an upwardly revised October number.
The trade group's seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for existing homes fell to a reading of 87.6 from an upwardly revised October index of 89.9, but was down 19.2 percent from a year ago. The index hit a record low in August at the peak of the worldwide credit squeeze.
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