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I wanna believe in Zillow...and Global Warming...and the Easter Bunny

By Dennis Burgess

Property Manager with AmeriTeam Property Management SL#3200658

August 09, 2012 09:37 AM

I wanna believe in Zillow...and Global Warming...and the Easter Bunny

O.K. We know The Easter Bunny is real- I mean, could any Earthly rabbit lay eggs? Case closed. Global Warming? Alright, you got me on that one- I really don't have any interest in believing in the ol' Global Warming hoax. When the days arrive where we find 110 degrees in Arizona and Antarctica, I'll consider it. But until then...nope.

Which leaves me with Zillow, creator of the Zestimate and virtually all things Z.

http://www.zillow.com/blog/2012-08-02/should-i-buy-or-rent-we-do-the-math-for-you/

Here, Zillow lays out the case for how one can determine whether to buy or rent- based on what they refer to as the breakeven horizon. According to the Gods of Z, the point at which ownership beats renting here in the Orlando area is just over a year and 1/2; in some parts of Florida it's over 20 years.

What? I can see folks renting for 2 years around here and saying to themselves "Dang, we'd be better off if we'd have bought this place!"- but are we supposed to believe someone in Boca Grande is going to be sitting around 20 years into their lease and saying the same thing? Doubt it.

I don't know. Maybe I just have to admit it when I'm kicked. Zillow is so much smarter than I am. They've even explained things a bit more here:

http://www.zillow.com/blog/research/2012/08/01/buy-versus-rent-breakeven-analysis-methodology-2/

I can see their numbers and see their formulas- unfortunately, I can't see how they see the future and don't account for variables of purchases such as ARMs adjustments, Associations' fiscal wellness down the road when one purchases a townhome or condo, etc.

Guess I'll just have to keep studyin' 'til Zillow's figures make at least a little sense...

I wanna believe in Zillow...and Global Warming...and the Easter Bunny

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Ralph Janisch ABR CRS Broker

Janisch & Co. - Conroe, TX

Selling Northwest Houston to good people like you!

I don't believe anything contained in Zillow. We had one client that looked at it all the time. It was a genuine pain to keep showing her where they were always in error.....

Aug 09, 2012 09:41 AM

Richard Wilson

Cherry Creek Properties, LLC - Colorado Springs, CO

Town or Country, in Colorado, we do it all.

I just had a client today who was confused because my CMA was so far from the Zillow estimate. I encourage my clients NEVER to look at Zillow and such, but some people just cannot resist. :-)

Aug 09, 2012 10:55 AM

Erv Fleishman

Realty Associates - Boca Raton, FL

Luxury Prop Specialist Realty Associates

There are three things you shouldn't do

Don't relieve yourself into the wind
Don't swordfight with Zorro
Don't mess with Zillow

Aug 09, 2012 11:00 AM

Dennis Burgess

AmeriTeam Property Management - Mid Florida, FL

Orlando Property Manager and Realtor

Hi, Jeanne and Ralph: Thank you for stopping by, and for your comment. I don't know about everyone else's experiences, but I'd say...I don't know...100% of my problems have been with property owners who have felt their places were worth too much or with a potential seller in th same frame of mind. Funny, but I can't ever recall dealing with buyers or tenant prospects who exclaimed "Wow! Zillow is so high, but you're so reasonable" at the outset. Those dang Zestimates seem consistently high, though...

Aug 09, 2012 11:36 AM

Charles Stallions Property Manager

Charles Stallions Real Estate Services - Pace, FL

Pensacola, Pace & Gulf Breeze Property Management

I have seen Zilliow show an estimate of homes in the 70k neighborhoods compared to homes on the beach. All real estate is local Hire a local agent.

Aug 09, 2012 11:42 AM

Howdy, Richard: Thank you for dropping by, and for your comment. Let me guess...The Z was higher..? Just thinking that'd be the case, as I mentioned just above.

Aug 09, 2012 11:47 AM

Hi, Erv: Thank you for dropping by, and for your comment. We used to have another one around here- the old "You don't pull on S....", but the guy with the cape doesn't seem to want to play for the Magic anymore and nobody cares if it gets pulled or not...

Aug 09, 2012 11:50 AM

Hi, Charles: Thank you for stopping by, and for your comment. I've seen tons of that as well- it's funny that "comparable" seems to be a foreign word to folks in their line of work where it should be a term they know better than anyone...

Aug 09, 2012 11:54 AM

Jon Zolsky, Daytona Beach, FL

Daytona Condo Realty, 386-405-4408 - Daytona Beach, FL

Buy Daytona condos for heavenly good prices

Dennis - of course, there are some limitations, and some situations where Zillow misses, but they are really not that common. Their Zestimates are as good as sliced bread. I understand that agents often are angry with Zillow, as they take a lot of authority, but maybe Erv is right. Messing with Zillow is like relieving yourself into the wind (LOL)

Aug 09, 2012 03:46 PM

Hi Dennis, Actually the Zillow was substantially lower. She apparently watches it, and it went down 20000 after she finished her basement. Makes no sense.

Aug 09, 2012 10:05 PM

Hi, Jon: Thank you for dropping by, and for your comment as always. One of the things that has given Zillow a bad rap, in my humble opinion, is/was the inconsistency with regard to comps in areas overwhelmed with short sales. A community around here, Black Lake Park at one point had 75% short sales for a quarter. Appraisers bounced back/forth on including those sales as "real"- until settling in that "a sale is a sale", and I think Zillow has been slow to adjust to short sales' effects on areas. I might agree that Zillow could be a somewhat trusted macro resource, then- but a shaky micro one.

Aug 10, 2012 12:53 AM

Hi, Richard: Thank you for stopping in again. Nope, have to agree....but again, that's not surprising!

Aug 12, 2012 03:34 AM

I wanna believe in Zillow...and Global Warming...and the Easter Bunny

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