Home > Blogs > Howard Sumner > Montana Realtor Blog, Real Estate Market Information Billings, Montana, Yellowstone county

Market update at glance November 2014

By Howard Sumner

Industry Observer with Howard Sumner Consulting

December 17, 2014 11:49 PM

November 30th 2014

“Eleven Months Down, one to go”

In the immortal words of the Grateful Dead “what a long strange trip it has been”. I think that best describes 2014 Market. At the end of the 1^st quarter 2014, closed sales down -13%, pending sales -1%, inventory up 4%, and interest rates up 22% from the year earlier. At that point I would have let you bet a dollar and I would have matched with $50 about 2014 catching or surpassing 2013, you would have taken my $50. As I said last month, probably should not bet against the people with control over the money printing press.

First let’s look at closed transactions, Number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 2026 November 2014 as compared to 2051 in November 2013, a 1% decline. Monthly year over year different story monthly year over year November 2013 128, November 2104 131 a 2.34% increase.

Residential pending unit sales are up 17% years over year. To compare; 2013 November pending unit sales were up 11% over November 2012, interest rates increased in august of 2013. (2012 there were 224 pending sales; 2013 there were 249 pending sales, 2014 there are 292 pending sales). With the pending sales in the pipe line it now appears probable 2014 closed sales will probably slightly exceed2013, not the outcome expected until interest rates dropped.

The residential active properties for sale inventory in November 2014 is down -1% year over year, as a comparison, in November 2013 unit inventory was up 11% comparing 2012 (comparing 2012 to 2014 inventory is up 8.98%, 2012 there were 557 units for sale ; 2013 there were 619 units for sale ,2014 there are 612 units for sale ). Market time in November shows an increase of 4% year over year, as a comparison in 2013 market time was -17% lower than 2012(so a positive trend since the 4% increase is only 2 days longer on the market). The absorption rate shows an decrease of -7% in time year over year, as a comparison November 2013 absorption time was up 5% year over year bench marketing against 2012.