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Supply Side Disruptions Board Out Potential Buyers!

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Mortgage and Lending with The Federal Savings Bank/Lending in 50 states NMLS # 109616

Consumers opened their wallets and spent in January but higher prices for goods and services were seen across the board. January Retail Sales rose 3.8% monthly while annual sales were up nearly 13%. When stripping out autos, sales were up 3.8%. Online purchasing was a big factor in the numbers, with nonstore retailers seeing an increase of 14.5%. Furniture and home furnishing sales rose 2% while motor vehicle and parts dealers saw a 5.7% gain.

Home borrowing costs jumped in the latest week and the higher rates coupled with lofty homes prices are slowing demand a bit. The MBA reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 22 basis points to 4.05% with 0.45 in points. Within the report it showed that the Market Composite Index fell 5.4%, the Refinance Index decreased 9% while the Purchase Index fell by 1%. An MBA spokesperson said, "The 30-year fixed rate saw the largest single-week increase since March 2020 and was above the 4 percent mark for the first time since 2019. Consistent with this period of higher mortgage rates, refinance applications fell 9 percent last week and stood at around half of last year's pace. The refinance share of applications was also at its lowest level since July 2019."

Home builder confidence slipped this month from January as builders cite severe supply-side constraints. The NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 82 from 83 for the third straight monthly decline. However, the index has remained above 80 for the past five months. Any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. “Production disruptions are so severe that many builders are waiting months to receive cabinets, garage doors, countertops and appliances,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter, a builder and developer from Savannah, Ga. “These delivery delays are raising construction costs and pricing prospective buyers out of the market."

 

Retail Sales increase. Home borrowing costs rise. Home builder confidence slips.