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What Is the Probability That Home Values Will Sink?
What Is the Probability That Home Values Will Sink?
 
With the current state of uncertainty about the economy triggered by a flood of media ‘hype’ on the subject, there are some who are waiting to purchase their first home or even move-up to their dream house. The fear? That home prices will fall over the next few years or the dreaded ‘R’ word is upon us. Once again, here is more data from the experts who disagree vehemently with this perspective.
 
The following table shows the predicted level of appreciation from six major housing sources:
 
As you probably expected, every source is confident that home prices will continue to appreciate. Granted, all sources predict slightly lower levels than we have seen over the last several years but, not one source is calling for residential real estate values to depreciate.
 
Even ARCH Mortgage Insurance Company’s most recent Housing and Mortgage Market Review, the ARCH Risk Index is showing low probability in most states, 2 years from now. Not one state in the nation had a moderate probability of home prices lowering. In fact, 34 of the 50 states had a minimal probability.
 
 
*The typically conservative ARCH Risk Index estimates the probability of home prices being lower in ... more

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