Today's Market/ Interest Rates Outlook

Thursday's bond market has opened in negative territory following another round of stock gains and concerns about tomorrow's economic data. The stock markets are well into positive territory with the Dow up 18 points and the Nasdaq up 11 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Today's only relevant data was the first revision to the 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It showed an annual rate of growth of 0.6%, which was lower than the 0.8% that was expected and well below the previous estimate of 1.3%. This means that the economy grew at a slower pace than previously thought. It actually was the slowest pace of growth since the last quarter of 2002. While this is generally good news for bonds, it hasn't influenced bond trading due to the importance of tomorrow's data and more gains in stocks that are drawing funds from bonds.

Tomorrow brings us the release of four pieces of data, including two of the weeks' most important. The first is April's Personal Income and Outlays data at 8:30 AM. This report gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. An increase in income means that consumers have more money available to spend. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this data can cause movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are showing a 0.3% rise in income and a 0.4% increase in spending.

The second report of the day is also arguably the single most important report that we see each month. The Labor Department will post May's Employment data early Friday morning. This report gives us key employment readings such as the U.S. unemployment rate and the number of jobs added or lost during the month. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate remain at 4.5% with approximately 135,000 new jobs added. An increase in unemployment and fewer new jobs than expected would be great news for the bond market. It would probably create a sizable rally in bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates tomorrow.

The next report is the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index. This highly important index measures manufacturer sentiment. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed manufacturing executives felt that business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. Analysts are expecting to see a 54.0 reading in this month's release, meaning that sentiment slipped during May. A smaller reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers while an unexpected increase could contribute to higher mortgage rates.

The last report of the day and the last important data of the week will come from the University of Michigan who will update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for May. An upward revision would be considered a negative for bonds, but because of the importance of the day's other data I am not expecting this report to influence mortgage rates.