This Weeks Economic Calendar
Last week was a mixed week with 2 good days and 3 bad days, by the end of the week Fannies lost another 12/32nds ending 2 weeks in a row of rates creeping up on us. This week has a broad mix of data to keep investors confused. Keep in mind that we are fast approaching the new year, and in early 2010 Uncle Sam will step out of the Mortgage Backed securities market and that alone may cause rates to climb a bit as the market loses one of the big participants.
Here is this week's calendar:
- Monday December 14: Better get your Christmas shopping done! In the absence of any real news today we have a confused market that is bouncing back and forth on either side of "unchanged" awaiting this weeks big news events.
- Tuesday December 15: Fed Open Market Committee begins its 2 day meeting
- Tuesday: November Producer Price Index expected+0.8% with a core of +0.2%. While the headline number looks bright (and scary for rates) the core is low enough to keep the market quiet.
- Tuesday: November Industrial production expected +0.5% and Capacity Utilization 71.1%. This would be the 4th month out of the last 5 where production has climbed, but the capacity number remains low enough that there is no fear of inflation.
- Wednesday December 16: November Consumer Price index expected +0.4% with a core of +0.1%. as long as the core number stays at or below 0.2% it is not likely to be a market mover.
- Wednesday: November housing starts expected +9.6% and permits +3.4%. this has been an improving number for the past few months, but investors are not likely to believe it is a pattern yet.
- Wednesday: 2:15pm - Fed meeting is over, and the post meeting statement is released. This is where everyone gets out their fine tooth comb, tries to read between the lines and looks for a change from the previous statements to see if there is any chance the Fed will move rates sooner than anticipated. It is not likely the tone of the post meeting statement will shed any new light on the economy so this is most likely going to be a non event. UNLESS there is a big shocker.
- Thursday December 17: Initial Jobless claims expected down 11,000. Employment numbers will remain high, it is always a lagging indicator and not likely to be a market mover.
- Thursday: November Leading indicators expected+0.7%. This number looks forward about 6 months for growth. As forecast this is a strong report and a sign that next year could be a good one. Good news is bad news for rates, so this report could put a bit of upward pressure on mortgage rates.
- Friday: No news day.
Put your seat belts on, it is going to be a bumpy ride! I think we will be really bumpy going into Wednesday afternoon as investors try to second guess the Fed statement. It is pretty unlikely that the Fed will shock us by saying they will raise rates sooner rather than later or say they will scale back asset purchasing programs that are already in place. The economy is still to fragile to take that kind of shock. I think we will end the week with dust settling, a lot of upset stomachs all for a pretty much unchanged week. Fed Speak is always vague and has to be, since the Fed's words are often more powerful than their actions.
Have a great week.
Rob
Mortgage Banker
www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf
(732)223-1630 x102
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