It was a bit of a surprise to see that Kauai real estate absorption rates have increased since my end-of-year update. In-the-trenches people I talk with complain about a lack of inventory and having moved from a Buyers Market to a Sellers Market. However, all Kauai regions are now back above the 6-month classical definition of a Seller's Market. This is evident when comparing the March 31 chart below with the December 30 chart below that one.
Review of the data shows the number of sales are indeed down (as are active listings) in the first quarter compared to the last quarter of 2012. Perhaps this is the "boing" overshoot and oscillation that our Hawaii economist Paul Brewbaker talks about (I love the sounds effects he makes with "boing"). I will be watching this closely to stay abreast of market conditions. Meanwhile, I continue to plan for rising prices and a move back to a Seller's Market. What about you, what are you seeing and planning for?
Overshoot & oscillation (Brewbaker boing theory)
First quarter 2013 Kauai Absorption Rate
4th Quarter 2012 Kauai Absorption Rate