No Pants, but With a Tie

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Daytona Condo Realty, 386-405-4408

This is the continuation. Please, read the first installmet at When Hindsight Is No Longer Perfect

Putin is not “soft” Obama. Yes, he miscalculated, but his miscalculation put him at 87% approval rate. And from that moment he changed from a cautious, but uninformed and poorly educated realist, to a hostage of his own approval. The annexation of the Crimea was sold to the nation as an act of reviving the country, bringing back its pride, and it works very well for Russian population. We went through that already in our glorious history of being with no pants, but with a tie…

 

But now there is no way back. How can you sell to the nation that you would now have to return the Crimea back to Ukraine? That it was the wrong move? You can’t return the pride… Now the whole world refuses to recognize it, no project there can be financed, so do not expect investment in the area, and now it is a huge burden on Russia financially. It is a failure, and Putin knows it, but Russia doesn’t. They are told that it is sacral for Russia.

 

If Putin starts acting as pragmatist, as he used to be, and retreats, he would become a traitor. His lies, multiplied by every government media, made him the hostage and, possibly, the victim if something goes wrong, and in Russia everything goes wrong.

 

Not only he miscalculated the West and their response, he miscalculated their resolve and adherence to the principles over money, which bewildered Mr. Putin. In his mind the west was willing to sell their mom to the devil for a few cents. That’s how Westerners and Americans are portrayed by Russian media, and the problem with dictators is they fall prey to their own propaganda.

 

So, instead of maneuvering and avoiding a very big rift, he decided to break the unity. He speaks fluent German, so Germany and Austria were his first targets to break the EU from the inside. It did not work. But by the time he figured that nothing would work, that he put the country at such risk, that nobody ever done it, it was too late. The West and US give him the room to get out with face, but it is with the face in the eyes of the west. He can’t do it, without losing the credibility of his own people. And he also is not willing to let the Ukraine become a EU oriented nation.

 

He did not have a problem with Baltic countries go away, Central Asian former republics go away, but Ukraine was his ace in the sleeve. He needed it to be his satellite. Putin does not see Ukraine as an independent country. It is his toy, and now, that it tries to sever the ties, he gets angry and fights.

 

He is deep in it, and he has no intention to withdraw. He is trying to maneuver a little bit without losing the face, and at the same time give some signals to EU, but the room is very little, and even that brings the cries that he is selling off the great country.

 

And here is a dilemma. Putin and his clique lie to the nation. They lie that Russia is not fighting in the Ukraine, and so many Russians believe them. They lie that sanctions would only help them build their own successful economy, and again, the population is ecstatic. Even when the ruble is falling, they say that it is good, and that it is not for long, and all other BS, and people still believe them, even though many start waking up.

 

Putin knows that it is a disaster. And that it can’t last. He is sitting on a bomb, that he prepared for others, and now it is only a matter of time before it explodes. He is betting that the West and US would succumb to pressure and it would happen before he is ousted, or there is a revolution.

 

It is still too long, ouch... Why can't I express myself with fewer words? Anyway, next will be the last installment, I propmise.

 

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Rainer
110,084
Barry Kessler
CENTURY 21 Troop Real Estate - Simi Valley, CA
Barry Kessler

Jon,

Interesting take on the Russia/Ukraine/Crimea situation. 

I find it very interesting. It is all about oil and pipelines. Who owns them, what countries they run through and the contracts that come with them. 

Don't  you think that Ukrainians should pay for the gas that they steal from Russia?

Dec 16, 2014 03:56 PM #1
Rainmaker
425,315
Ted Baker
Carmody and Associates LLC - Winter Haven, FL
MidFloridaMediation.com

Well, Jon.  I am not the one to comment on the length of your posts - that isn't happening.  Although your directing your latest to "Silent Majority", it doesn't appear there - so I cannot lend support there with a feature.

I will just have to support from the cheap seats - well played, as always.  Mr Putin should have listened to you.  I note he is selected as "Man of the Year" in Russia.  Last one out of the Kremlin should be sure and turn out the lights.

 

Dec 16, 2014 05:41 PM #2
Rainmaker
772,415
Bruce Walter
Keller Williams Realty Lafayette/West Lafayette, Indiana - West Lafayette, IN

Jon, I enjoyed reading your analysis of the situation in Russia, but it is only a matter of time before OPEC cuts back on the supply of oil and the prices will go back up.  When the price of oil increases again I would think the ruble will stabilize. 

Looking to the future, which president do you see defying their constitution, implementing an executive order, and running for a third consecutive term?  ^_~ 

Dec 16, 2014 08:14 PM #3
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Jon Zolsky, Daytona Beach, FL
Daytona Condo Realty, 386-405-4408 - Daytona Beach, FL
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Barry - it is a big question. Besides, they are paying. However, there was a long-term contract with fixed price. Discounted price, because it was part of the deal where Ukraine lease out the Naval Base in Sevastopol, the bed of Russian Black Sea Navy.

Now, Russia annexed Crimea, and now declares that it does not have to pay, because they now "own" Crimea.

Maybe they need to pay way more for what they have stolen?

And there is more to that. Russia now wants to put nukes there. The world does not agree to the the annexation, and now according to the world Russia wants to put nukes on the Ukrainian soil. Any strong leader, the same Ted Kennedy, probably would have gone with the ultimatum, and would npt let them do it. Would President Obama do it?

And it is not about pipelines and who owns them. US does not really care about the pipelines, and about oil there. As long as they are stable and do not threat and attack neighbors. But they do threat and already attack, and way more to come. Do we need to wait for Putin to become Putler? that's how Ukrainians call him, by the way.

Should we and the west forget about the pipelines and go by the principles?

Dec 16, 2014 09:40 PM #4
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Jon Zolsky, Daytona Beach, FL
Daytona Condo Realty, 386-405-4408 - Daytona Beach, FL
Buy Daytona condos for heavenly good prices

Ted - I believe it is AR fluke. I marked it for the group, did it again, and it is not showing. Weird.

I sent you an email, but now not sure I have the right address.

And thank you for the comment.

Dec 17, 2014 01:35 PM #5
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Jon Zolsky, Daytona Beach, FL
Daytona Condo Realty, 386-405-4408 - Daytona Beach, FL
Buy Daytona condos for heavenly good prices

Bruce - oil coming back would not really save Russia. Yes, we might see oil at $150 a barrel and $1 excnaging for 150 rubles.

Even before Crimea, the demand for oil and gas started getting less. Crimea scared the West, and they would do everything to distance from Russia, and make sure they are not easy hostages of Putin.

And when the country has nothing to offer besides oil and weapons, it is not really a world economy.

KGB guys can steal, conspire and grab land and start a war in the Ukraine, but they do not know how to make the economy grow. Not Putin

Dec 17, 2014 01:39 PM #6
Rainer
389,243
Anna Hatridge
Goodson Realty - Farmington, MO
Missouri Realtor with Goodson Realty

Interesting prospective on the happenings globally.  One thing that is sure to happen is that history always repeats it's self.   Usually, it moves from one location to the next, but we seem (as humans) intent upon forgetting this has happened before and we do have the choice to stop it at the beginning.

Dec 18, 2014 11:17 PM #7
Rainmaker
1,284,071
Jon Kolsky
Kolsky Realty & Management - Long Beach, CA
Licensed California Real Estate Broker

Jon Zolsky, Daytona Beach, FL ~ sometimes there are no easy solutions! In times where two sides can't see "eye to eye" it takes both parties to make concessions and agree "not" to agree, but do it civil.... There has to be a middle ground for both sides in order to restore peace, and that's what I hope for

Dec 19, 2014 01:06 AM #8
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Jon Zolsky, Daytona Beach, FL
Daytona Condo Realty, 386-405-4408 - Daytona Beach, FL
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Jon Kolsky - I can't argue with "no easy solutions". Too often we can't see eye to eye, our understanding of the worlds is too different, our cultures are two different, but each sides follows its aspirations and ideas. Too often they are speaking different languages.

Oh, well

Dec 19, 2014 01:28 AM #9
Rainmaker
1,284,071
Jon Kolsky
Kolsky Realty & Management - Long Beach, CA
Licensed California Real Estate Broker

Jon Zolsky, Daytona Beach, FL ~ well said! It is my hope that eventually the different cultures/languages can intertwine and make this world a better place... There always is a way to find middle ground as long as both sides are willing to do it

Dec 19, 2014 01:33 AM #10
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