Good morning and so glad we have a 3 day weekend upon us.
After much hype for the real volatility that existed today, it looks to be one of those events similar to a firecracker as a kid. You light it run and expect a loud bang any second only to wait for a while and ... nothing! While its not a guarantee of direction, I think today's data gives a strong message that the Feds may hold off on increasing rates for the next session, later this month.
Currently the FNMA 3.0 is sitting at 100.831 and that is exactly where ti closed yesterday. Typically we see a peel back on a Friday before a holiday but with this news I think we are likely to hold and close very near current levels.
Here is today's data and have a great Veterans Day weekend
Although the headline missed expectations there are a lot of positive contributors to today’s Employment Report. Nonfarm Payrolls came in below expectations at 173K (consensus 217K) with July revised up from 215K to 245K. The Unemployment Rate fell to 5.10% vs. 5.30% prior (5.20% consensus), the lowest level since August 2008. The Labor Force Participation Rate held at 62.60%. Average hourly earnings increased 0.30% vs. 0.20% prior, and are up 2.20% YoY. The curve flattened following the data release with yields rising in the short end with 2-Year notes up 1.6 bps and falling at both long end with the 10-Year notes down 2.9 bps and the 30-Year bond down 5 bps
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