Hitting the Brakes for Real Estate Sales in June 2018 for Vancouver WA
Did the "other shoe drop" for home sales in June? We had been observing a slight slowing of unit-volume in prior months until June - when a 93-unit year-over-year drop took place! This month's main points for Vancouver Real Estate Sales include:
- 427 Resale Homes were sold in June 2018, which is 93 fewer (-17.9%) homes than were sold in June 2017.
- The 3-Month Moving Average Price Trend Line is 10.34% higher than the prior year; with the 12-Month Moving Average now up 10.07%.
- Short Sale /Pre-Foreclosure property sales were 2 unit (0.5% of total); down from June 2017's 3 (0.6% of total).
- REO/Bank Owned home sales were 4 units (0.9% of total); compared to 8 units in June 2017 (1.5% of total).
- The Inventory for Resale Homes continued to grow and is now at 1.7 Months of Supply.
With other areas in the nation experiencing a slowdown in real estate sales, we've been expecting the Hit to come to our area - and the late-May-to-June period has verified that event.
Rising Interest Rates on home loans is part of the braking action. Freddie Mac reports the 30 year Interest rate for home loans came in at an average of 4.57% for the month, which is down only slightly from last month, and higher than last year's 3.9% rate.
The first chart below shows the Unit-volume trends, and the "Slowing" of unit sales is appearing as the long-term trend-line is drifting lower, and the short-term (red) line barely broke above the long-term line, which is both late and low for this date.
Vancouver WA Resale Home Sales - Units Sold Trend June 2018
In our opinion we are starting to see "Buyer Resistance" to the combination of record high prices and higher borrowing costs. This effect is in itself is a combination of some buyers Unwilling to pay the higher rate; and other buyers Unable to pay the higher rate. Either cause will result in a decrease in the pool of Willing And Able Home Buyers.
The chart below is now showing a much smaller change in the short-term trend (the red line); and if this continues over the remainder of the summer, the long-term trend will also register a change in momentum.
Vancouver WA Resale Home Sales - Average Sales Price Trend
In June 2018 there were 19 properties (4.4%) that closed at $200,000 or less when sold; with 27 (6.3%) sold that were priced $200,000 to $250,000. In comparison with the 2017-June measurement, 103 or, 19.8% of the sales were at $250k or below; while this year that reading is now at 11.0%.
The final graphs we present come from the Regional Multiple Listing Service, showing the real estate market results for Unit Sales, Average & Median Prices; and Days on Market:
Vancouver Resale Home Sales Inventory & Days on Market Trends
The first graph shows a slight increase to Pending Sales and Closed Sales, with New Listings dropping slightly.
The second chart indicates the average new-listing-prices easing just slightly, with closed sales prices up slightly from the prior month.
Finally, both the Average Days on the Market fell and the Median fell modestly, and are in-line with what we've been experiencing this time of the sales-year.
Thank you for visiting our real estate market report for Vancouver Washington. We are happy to help you with any questions, or requests for assistance with your real estate needs.
PS - We love to Sell Homes and Real Estate in Vancouver and Clark County Washington. Are you in the market to sell your home? - the first step to take is to ask us to find out what your home will Sell For. We'll prepare a confidential Market Analysis and Valuation, and a road-map for the Home Selling Process. Give us a Call - we'd love to help you out!
PPS - Home Shopping or, looking to right-size to another Home or Condo? We wouldn't have a real estate market if there weren't home buyers, and we love to help Home Buyers! As a part of our service we make it ease to Search all the available Homes for sale in Vancouver Washington or, separately Search all the available Condos for sale in Vancouver WA. We've put much custom work in to make it Easy for You to search by Neighborhood or by Category, with Homes and real estate listings from the entire RMLS. Sign-up is Not Required but recommended as you can Save your own custom search!
This report and custom charts (prepared by John Slocum Vancouver WA Listing Real Estate Broker, our resident statistician) are based on home sales posted in the Vancouver MLS system (RMLS), excluding sales of mobile home; and shows the purchase activity since 2009; charting the 3 month Moving average number of sales, and the 12 month Moving average. This "smoothing" of the trend-data helps illustrate the short-term and longer term trends in Vancouver WA's real estate market.
Disclaimer: as with any real estate statistics, we do our best to provide the best representation at the time the data was acquired. We deem the data and reports reliable but not guaranteed.