You Say Recession - I Say Poppycock!

By
Real Estate Agent with DFW FINE PROPERTIES 0506509

 

"The only thing to FEAR is FEAR itself!" --- Franklin D. Roosevelt

 

For the Fall Challenge 2019 proposed by Debe Maxwell, CRS she has asked members on ActiveRain, a platform designed and created for Real Estate Agents to plan on answering the tough questions clients and prospective buyers and sellers want to know, such as, "Are we in a recession now or do you expect we're approaching one?" The second question is "Should I go ahead and fire-sell my house before the recession?" 

 

How I Plan to Answer the Tough Questions about the Recession

Recession??? Poppycock! Stay Calm! I'm an advocate, not an activist. The economics is highlighted in Quarterlies. Q4 (Jan), Q1 (Apr), Q2 (July), Q3 (Oct). The weaker quarterlies are Q1-3 because Q4 includes holidays, such as: 

  • Halloween
  • Thanksgiving
  • Black Friday
  • Christmas
  • Boxing Days

Historically, whenever we are going into an election year or we approach Q4 the media and politicians and people campaigning come on strong promoting fear-mongering - the action of deliberately arousing public fear or alarm about a particular issue, namely are we headed for a recession? 

When it comes to the real estate market, shameless people who use scare tactic talk about the economy warning people we're headed for a recession attempting to manipulate property owners into quickly "fire-sell" their homes "before the recession" or advise you not to sell now. 

 

Beware of Headlines That Rob You of Your Happiness

My goal is to continue to educate my clients and provide the best services to people who are serious about buying and selling real estate when it right for them and in their best interest, not mine. My advice - be real. Be you. Do not be under the influence that the world is doomed. Live right. Listen to people like myself, your local Real Estate Agent or Brokers who you know, like, and trust. Don't let anyone, social media, the new media, political campaigner, or any flash-in-the-pan company offering to pay cash to buy your home to reduce you the stress of working with a professional Real Estate Agent licensed to do business scare you into making rash decisions about your finances or real estate decisions.  

I am not motivated by greed. I am not an investor. I care about the people I serve. My long-time success is built on strong customer/client loyalties built on referrals from past clients who bought or sold real estate. 

 

Carpe Diem 

Something I will do differently in 2020 that I haven't had to do in the last five years is to focus more sharply on Carpe Diem, meaning to seize the day - make the most of the present and to give little thought to the past or future. Recession? I have no crystal ball and God does not live in a big White House in D.C. and God does not attend Congressional meetings or meet up with the Economists. If there has been a recession every single decade for the past 170 years or more, that only proves one thing, the market volatility is normal and our economy is like a rubber ball - it bounces back. 

Some things stay the same and some things change. I may be older; however, I am still compassionate and understanding. Financially, things have changed but I still own my own home and I want others to have a home of their own because I believe in homeownership and the American dream. My goal is to help my clients realize their truth and to continue to help them achieve their personal goals. When it comes to financial decisions, I take into consideration the circumstances in others' situations and help them to get to where they need to go. As the Brittish would say to Americans: 

 

  

Add or Subtract

Finally, I wouldn't be a successful business owner if I didn't change or tweak my business plan for 2020. As I work on my business plan, there will be changes where needed and I'm also open to new ideas. I shall spend less time watching the news and very little time watching the debates. Although I shall not put my head in the sand, I am not going to allow anyone from the Media or political candidates shift the ground from under my feet. I will continue to appreciate the people who hire me to represent them in the sale of residential properties. Whatever the economists say is purely irrelevant to people who need to move for reasons that are legitimate. I stand by my people, for the people, and by my people. 

 

 

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Real Estate Commission Consumer Protection Notice  

 

 dfw fine properties

 

DFW FINE PROPERTIES

                                        2900 W Southlake Blvd, Suite 180
                                        Southlake, TX 76092
                                        Office: 817-748-4800/FAX: 817-748-4900

                                         Patricia Feager
                                                        Cell: 469-951-4758

                                                        Email: patricia.feager@gmail.com

 

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"With self-discipline most anything is possible." --- Theodore Roosevelt 

 

 

  

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Rainmaker
2,017,044
Patricia Feager, MBA, CRS, GRI,MRP
DFW FINE PROPERTIES - Southlake, TX
Selling Homes Changing Lives

Margaret Goss - Your comments are GOLDEN!!! Thank you for your supporting documentation. Consumers do not deserve to be bullied or manipulated by strong-arm scare tactics. I haven't seen or heard of "high unemployment." Wages are better than before November 2016. Retail is subjective because as you say, many consumers are shopping on-line. In my area, if a business goes out of business, it is replaced almost immediately by another business owner and doesn't seem to have any impact. In my area there is a lot of new construction, new small business, and big companies like Toyota that relocated to DFW which is a large area. I'm not seeing ghost towns either. 

Thank you, so much for providing such valuable information! 

Have a great day!

Sep 10, 2019 11:55 AM #47
Rainmaker
175,031
John Henry
John Henry Masterworks Design International, Inc. - Orlando, FL
Residential Architect, Luxury Custom Home Design

Hi Patricia Feager, MBA, CRS, GRI,MRP  Good analysis and commentary on something that happens from time to time but not being predicted by most in the financial community.  Media reports tend to call for a slowdown to try to weaken the party in power before an election.  It has been seen before.  You have to look around this static information to get to real facts before predicting a recession.  Thanks!

Sep 10, 2019 12:38 PM #48
Ambassador
891,162
John Meussner
Mason-McDuffie Mortgage, Conventional Loans, Jumbo Loans, FHA, 203(k), USDA, VA, - Walnut Creek, CA
#MortgageMadeEasy Walnut Creek, CA 484-680-4852

While on the side of "there will be a recession within the next year" (depending on just how much rate cutting and economic stimulus takes place between now and then) ---- my message always includes a disclaimer on housing - home prices tend to go UP (or at least stay flat) during a recession.  Check out this history - in the last recession, a dip in home values CAUSED the recession (the bursting of a bubble), not the other way around.  Historically, home ownership is one of the best places to park money in a recession.

 

Sep 10, 2019 01:13 PM #49
Ambassador
1,640,098
Joe Pryor
The Virtual Real Estate Team - Oklahoma City, OK
REALTOR® - Oklahoma Investment Properties

I do believe one is coming and that's OK. Market corrections are necessary to control irrational exurberance and excessive monetary policy. Life goes on and let's not confuse this with the Great Recession.

Sep 10, 2019 02:14 PM #50
Rainmaker
2,761,635
Laura Cerrano
Feng Shui Manhattan Long Island - Locust Valley, NY
Certified Feng Shui Expert, Speaker & Researcher

Everybody still seems to have the right idea as I come back to this one from yesterday! :)

Sep 10, 2019 02:27 PM #51
Rainmaker
172,441
Kelly McGovern
Realty Concierge International - Bellingham, MA
Working with Kelly is a good move

I don't see a recession upon us either and boy did I see the early signs the last time!  I agree with you, there is way too much fear-mongering! I refuse to have the media dictate to me as well.  I am sticking to my business plan and I'm doing very well - especially over the past 3 years!  Carpe Diem!

Sep 10, 2019 04:08 PM #52
Rainmaker
2,017,044
Patricia Feager, MBA, CRS, GRI,MRP
DFW FINE PROPERTIES - Southlake, TX
Selling Homes Changing Lives

John Henry - I do agree with you. I also think premature predictions can cause unnecessary havoc and confusion. People who are so sure of themselves and are pros at using scare tactics are kind of psychotic to me. They live in a different world - a dark place. 

Thank you, for your comments - they mean a lot to me.. 

Sep 10, 2019 06:00 PM #53
Rainmaker
1,215,505
Sheri Sperry - MCNE®
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage - Sedona, AZ
(928) 274-7355 ~ YOUR Solutions REALTOR®

Hi Patricia Feager, MBA, CRS, GRI,MRP,

Congratulations on your well-deserved feature!

I just got the numbers August to August and this August was slightly better in all categories. 

Sep 10, 2019 06:13 PM #54
Rainmaker
2,017,044
Patricia Feager, MBA, CRS, GRI,MRP
DFW FINE PROPERTIES - Southlake, TX
Selling Homes Changing Lives

John Meussner - I can appreciate your reference to your history lesson in the last recession. It's expected for historians and people in the mortgage industry to take a position on a controversial subject. In my opinion, red flags were up as early as 2006 and the response by the Federal Reserve and the subprime mortgage crisis was to add $24B in liquidity to the banking system. By 2008 Congress approved a $700B bank bailout. The fact is the subprime mortgage crisis caused the 2006 recession and things continued to get worse. Unfortunately, it could have been prevented but the Federal Reserve didn't heed those warning signs and ignored declines in the inverted yield curve. I pray nothing like subprime mortgages is ever implemented again and our government is wiser today than yesterday. What was also a contributor to the mortgage crisis that preceded the Great Recession were those interest-only loans offered to subprime borrowers. High-Risk buyers should have never been approved. Of course, their homes would default and banks would take back their homes - a national tragedy. 

What happened in 2008 was another surreal moment in history when Fannie and Freedie went bankrupt in August 2008! How did that happen is a mystery? Then followed the stock market crash and once again Congress established the Troubled Assets Relief Program to allow US Treasury to bail out troubled banks. All this was predated by fear, fear, and more fear. So many government failures escalated and homeowners were in serious trouble because those who were affected were never qualified to begin with! 

In October 2009 unemployment was at an all-time high at 10.2%, by far worse than the recession of 1982. Nearly 6Million jobs were lost in the period of just 12 months! And the pages of history continued to turn, page after page with Lehman Brothers, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, etc., etc., etc. All that had taken place during the Obama administration was like hell on earth for so many people. There weren't just 12 angry men - it was a Nation of angry people and the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act was the topping of the failed cake with new regulations that nobody could understand.

Today, I still can't understand why history doesn't teach us to not make the same mistakes. I don't believe in scare tactics. I don't believe in charts and stats. Nor do I believe in banks. I believe in God and the people who do right for our country and the people here on earth.  

Sep 10, 2019 07:49 PM #55
Rainmaker
2,017,044
Patricia Feager, MBA, CRS, GRI,MRP
DFW FINE PROPERTIES - Southlake, TX
Selling Homes Changing Lives

Joe Pryor - "Life goes on and let's not confuse this with the Great Recession." AMEN!

Sep 10, 2019 07:51 PM #56
Rainmaker
2,017,044
Patricia Feager, MBA, CRS, GRI,MRP
DFW FINE PROPERTIES - Southlake, TX
Selling Homes Changing Lives

Kelly McGovern - Stick to your business plan - Carpe Diem! Turn a deaf ear to the fear-mongering! I pray you shall continue to succeed!

Sep 10, 2019 07:55 PM #57
Rainmaker
2,017,044
Patricia Feager, MBA, CRS, GRI,MRP
DFW FINE PROPERTIES - Southlake, TX
Selling Homes Changing Lives

Sheri Sperry - MCNE® - Thanks for the great news coming out of Sedona, Arizona! I know you work diligently to help all buyers and sellers with truth, honesty, and integrity! 

Sep 10, 2019 07:57 PM #58
Rainmaker
1,537,034
Marte Cliff
Marte Cliff Copywriting - Priest River, ID
Your real estate writer

I believe the talk of recession is a scare tactic designed to harm the President. I don't think it will work - not with unemployment this low, wages rising, taxes lower, etc.

Some believe that if they say it long enough and loud enough, consumers will respond and quit spending money. I doubt it. So to your Poppycock, I'll add Balderdash!

I love the statistics given here in comments that show housing does well in a recession. So perhaps those who believe the hype will help you become even more successful!

Sep 10, 2019 08:00 PM #59
Rainmaker
2,017,044
Patricia Feager, MBA, CRS, GRI,MRP
DFW FINE PROPERTIES - Southlake, TX
Selling Homes Changing Lives

Marte Cliff - Poppycock! Balderdash! - Thanks for the addition. They compliment each other perfectly!

You're not alone thinking it's a "scare tactic designed to harm the President." There is a big difference between a good headline created to serve the best interest of the greater good and those designed with the intention of promoting propaganda.

Thank you for your wonderful comment!

Sep 10, 2019 08:10 PM #60
Rainmaker
1,537,034
Marte Cliff
Marte Cliff Copywriting - Priest River, ID
Your real estate writer

Those are fun words, aren't they Patricia?

Sep 10, 2019 08:16 PM #61
Rainmaker
2,017,044
Patricia Feager, MBA, CRS, GRI,MRP
DFW FINE PROPERTIES - Southlake, TX
Selling Homes Changing Lives

Marte Cliff - Yes! I love to use fun words! 

Sep 10, 2019 08:18 PM #62
Rainmaker
1,228,961
Gene Mundt, IL/WI Mortgage Originator - FHA/VA/Conv/Jumbo/Portfolio/Refi
NMLS #216987, IL Lic. 031.0006220, WI Licensed. APMC NMLS #175656 - New Lenox, IL
708.921.6331 - 40+ yrs experience

Although not in the investment business directly, I have been watching the markets and cause/effect over the last 4 decades via the lense of lending, Patricia Feager, MBA, CRS, GRI,MRP.  Little I see currently fits historic patterns.  Reactions seen and felt by the markets are not "normal".  That is being reported by the media.  No matter who ... no matter what party is represented in the White House, that is their role.  

Gene

Sep 11, 2019 08:30 AM #63
Rainmaker
2,017,044
Patricia Feager, MBA, CRS, GRI,MRP
DFW FINE PROPERTIES - Southlake, TX
Selling Homes Changing Lives

Gene Mundt, IL/WI Mortgage Originator - FHA/VA/Conv/Jumbo/Portfolio/Refi - Profound words and wise ones too! Thank you. 

May your day be great in every way!

Sep 11, 2019 08:58 AM #64
Rainmaker
463,349
Diana Dahlberg
1 Month Realty - Pleasant Prairie, WI
Real Estate in Kenosha, WI since 1994 262-308-3563

With all the fear mongering ... it's still LOCAL ... and my clients rely on my expertise.  I don't believe there is any recession to be fearful of.  Correction? Yes, it has to happen and it is.  But the correction is good and expected.  Fear? No. This is not like 2008 ... 

Sep 12, 2019 11:36 AM #65
Rainmaker
2,017,044
Patricia Feager, MBA, CRS, GRI,MRP
DFW FINE PROPERTIES - Southlake, TX
Selling Homes Changing Lives

Diana Dahlberg -I like how you think! I'm also glad to know Kenosha County is going strong because I have relatives in the County! You're right, this is not like 2008. I think we are all smarter as a result. I pray the curse has been lifted for good!

Sep 12, 2019 08:56 PM #66
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