loans: I Give Thee Seven, No, Eight Commandments!
- 01/04/08 01:21 AM
OK. It's January 4th and if we're honest, many of the resolutions we made, both personal and business, have been compromised. We've snuck some chocolate, slept through our alarm rather than go to the gym, and chewed on our fingernails in a nervous moment. But take heart! If you set goals that are measured by the week, there is still hope. So I present to you, my 8 Commandments for 2008! I. Thou shalt return phone calls within 2 hours. We all say we're good communicators, but prove it. II. Thou shalt return essential e-mails the same day. What good is e-mail unless … (9 comments)
loans: Squeeze 10 Lemons
- 01/03/08 01:34 AM
I was talking with one of my loan officers yesterday who was struggling with putting deals together and finding leads. He was telling me how hard things are and how it seems like lenders are constricting their guidelines. True. He mentioned how difficult it is to put loans together. True. He talked about the credit issues, lack of down payment, and general shortage of commitment on the part of clients. True. And then this popped into my head. Yes, 2 years ago, you could squeeze one lemon and get a gallon of lemonade in return, but in this challenging market, you've got to … (15 comments)
loans: Potato Chips, Floss, and Fear of Committment
- 01/02/08 12:48 AM
It was New Year's Day 1986 that I decided to give up potato chips. Don't ask why. I think I weighed about a buck thirty at the time, so it wasn't about shedding pounds. I guess it was about discipline. I figured if I gave up something I really liked, I could learn to do that with other things in my life. My little brother would torture me by opening a fresh bag in front of me, crunching a few chips loudly, and then telling me how delicious they were, but somehow I made it. At the stroke of midnight that ushered in 1987, … (9 comments)
loans: Do you ever wish there was a RESET button for your life?
- 12/31/07 04:59 AM
When I was a little kid, I used to have a slight video game addiction. Not that I was any good, but if things weren't going my way trying to get to the next level of a game, I'd just hit the RESET button. Problem solved. Well, I still wasn't any good, but that's another problem all together. That magical button brought relief to my frustration. I tell you this mildly amusing anecdote to say this: We all have a fresh start tonight. 2007 is behind us, and for some, that is a huge relief. The mortgage (and real estate) industry went … (7 comments)
loans: Will rates dip into the fives by the end of the year? They just did!
- 12/31/07 01:32 AM
We're finishing 2007 on a positive note as mortgage-backed bond prices have ridden the UP escalator the past 3 sessions (+9 bps today) and interest rates are loving it. With a few of my lenders, rates have dipped into the high 5% range. If you look back at my past few blog entries, I had a feeling that we were due for a nice little year rally and that's exactly what has happened. Now, I'd like to think I'm ultra-skilled at predicting the future, but I can't even watch the weather and bring an umbrella on rainy days. I just have some great tools … (2 comments)
loans: Boing! Bonds Bounce Back Beautifully.
- 12/28/07 01:39 AM
What goes down must come up! OK, so maybe the housing market still has a way to go before the media proclaims a full recovery, but for the day, rates have taken a turn for the better. The FNMA 5.5% Bond is up a whopping 50 basis points and that is a huge bounce off the lows from Wednesday. What is driving this comeback that rivals Sylvester Stallone in Rocky III? Fear. Jobless claims are up. Housing starts are down. When investors operate in fear mode, the bond market does very well since they are guaranteed a rate of return. Which begs … (2 comments)
loans: Ham Hangover
- 12/26/07 06:08 AM
Interest rates are eating a healthy portion of leftovers from the main course we had earlier in the week: a bunch of goose eggs and a lame duck. With no good news to feed off and a stock market that's trying to make a comeback, mortgage-backed securities are currently down 16 bps, and 125 bps in the past 4 days. When will we hit the bottom? Bonds are clearly oversold and I'm thinking we've got to have a nice little year-end rally. But what if we don't stop selling off and rates climb into the high 6% range? I have a funny theory … (1 comments)
loans: A Bounce of Prevention?
- 12/24/07 01:04 AM
Monday morning and mortgage-backed bonds must have missed their cup of coffee as they are drooping miserably down 22 bps. The bond sell-off continues and we are resting on an important floor of resistance called the 50-day moving average. This puts rates in the 6.25-6.375% range for the day. The question is: How low will we go in our bond prices? We've lost over 100 basis points in the past 3 days: that's a big lump of coal in the stockings of the mortgage world. Have we seen the best rates of the year and now we're headed back to the mid 6% … (1 comments)
loans: Bond Bombshell
- 12/21/07 05:55 AM
It's 2:45 EST and the bond market is getting whacked harder than a pinata at a 4-year old's birthday party. Since my blog posting this morning, the Fannie Mae mortgage-backed securities fallen even farther down the rabbit hole and the currently stand at -50 bps. That's a hefty loss. Turns out the bond traders figured out that a lot of the financial news coming out as of late points to a serious risk of inflation poisoning our economy. This is bad news for bonds and the lenders are feeling it. I am getting intra-day reprices for the worse as I type this and that … (5 comments)
loans: Shop and Bonds Drop!
- 12/21/07 01:38 AM
A big economic number was released this morning called the PCE (Personal Consumptions Expenditures). It basically measures how much the average consumer is spending and believe it or not, wallets and purses are coming out more than ever. The number was expected to come in at 2.0%, but it exceeded that by measuring 2.2%. Great news for stocks, but bad news for interest rates. Why? If people are spending more, then retailers and service providers can raise their prices. Translation = inflation. Inflation is the nemesis of mortgage-backed securities as it indicates potential problems for our economy, and if we have the … (3 comments)
loans: Rate Expectations
- 12/20/07 05:24 AM
Did anyone see where my 5% interest rate went?The mystery of what controls interest rates rivals the Bermuda Triangle and why women like shoes so much. It's funny to listen to "industry experts" talk about the 10-year T-Note being a leading indicator of which way rates will head on a daily basis, but I'm here to tell you, they couldn't be wronger. This blog is my effort to share both industry secrets and daily information on what's truly driving interest rates; mortgage-backed securities. Hopefully this blog will educate, enlighten, and empower you so that you can stand out in this challenging … (4 comments)
OK. It's January 4th and if we're honest, many of the resolutions we made, both personal and business, have been compromised. We've snuck some chocolate, slept through our alarm rather than go to the gym, and chewed on our fingernails in a nervous moment. But take heart! If you set goals that are measured by the week, there is still hope. So I present to you, my 8 Commandments for 2008!
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