Mortgage market Week 11/28 - 12/2/11 Wrap Up
Well as I mentioned it should be a rather choppy and interested close to the 2011 year and this is exactly what we are seeing.
The FNMA 3.5 Coupon is currently up +21bps for the day and we have finally broken through the glass ceiling of 102 that seemed impenetrable during November. Where will this go now? Who knows we could see an instant reversal but I am not so sure. I believe now that we finally pierced this we could see a 40-50bos run up and really see a nicer drop in rates soon helping all of us in Real Estate (and those buying or refinancing) save some additional money and improve closings.
The 10Y Treasury is also following suit and is currently up +4/32 and pushing its yields back below 2.1%
Here is the trigger data for this and the biggest NOT being mentioned is the EU (that I mentioned would rear its head again soon, yesterday). The potential for downgrade has put additional pressure on them and increased cash into US bonds and treasuries. if news is bad we could even blow passed the +50bps I mentioned. Time will tell.
Here is the data being viewed currently...
- Nonfarm Payrolls: Actual 120K, prior 80K
- Nonfarm Private Payrolls: Actual 140K, prior 104K
- Unemployment Rate: Actual 8.6%, prior 9.0%
- Hourly Earnings: Actual 0.1%, prior 0.2%
Non farm payrolls and still high unemployment are not helping the cause for equities but the EU is the driving force right now.
Hang on still a bumpy and interesting ride ahead...
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