Election Year And The Real Estate Market

In most years in real estate, you can accurately predict and advise your clients on how the market will perform, with one exception. It’s really hard to predict how the market will perform in an election year, especially since this seems to be an election year like none other. Establishment politics seem to be out the window, so what we can expect from a candidate or policies will be difficult to predict. How does this apply to real estate?

Traditionally in an election year people tend to be very conservative. That means they keep their hands in their pocket, they are cautious to spend money, and may not make a major purchase before they know who their elected officials will be. So with the selling season upon  us in 30 days, it will be critical to have good timing this year.

Is your goal to sell your home this year and get maximum price in the shortest amount of time? If it is, then it’s going to be crucial you get your home on the market no later than the third week of March. The majority of homes will trade between the third week of March and the third week of July. If you look at MLS statistics, it will show for the last five years that the highest months for closed units were June and July. This is because people put their home on the market in April and May.

Right around the third week of July, the market takes a slump and stays that way for about 60 days. Sales don’t start picking up again until mid to late September. I predict it will be worse this year. The closer we get to the election, the slower real estate sales will be. While we usually see a bump in sales in October and November, we may not see that this year because of the election. As we get closer and closer to the first week of November, more and more people will get nervous and do nothing. We’ll have to wait and see how the public perceives the new president before we can make any accurate predictions on the market for 2017.

This we do know…if you have studied real estate for any length of time, you know what goes up must come down. We are coming to the end of the seven year cycle, and thus we are headed to a shift in the market. Most believe we will have a market correction to the tune of about 10-15% in 2018. We are advising all of our clients who are thinking about selling to do so either this spring or summer, or next spring or summer at the latest. For our clients that are investors with multiple properties, we are telling them to take a hard look at their portfolio. They should only hold on to the top performers and get rid of the rest. That means your top rentals stay, and the rest gets sold no later than spring 2017.

If you would like to know more about the market, why we see these warning signs on the horizon, or what’s happening in your neighborhood, contact us at the Colorado Dream House Team and we would be happy to speak with you.

Dan Polimino is a Broker/Owner with the Colorado Dream House Team, Keller Williams Realty DTC. Contact the Colorado Dream House Team, Keller Williams Realty DTC. Follow us on Twitter, Like us on Facebook, Watch us on YouTube,  Questions?