Mortgage Rates, and what will move them this week: March 1, 2010
Last week was a good one for rates. We gained back 28/32nds on Fannies after a few bad weeks in a row. That is a big move for 1 week. Last week had mixed results with the auctions running both hot and cold. The biggies were the housing reports that both came in much weaker than expected and the continuing issues in Greece that have caused a bit of a concern and a flight to quality with money flowing into our credit markets. This week is a busy one with the start of a new month and new data. The one thing we do not have this week is an any excess supply in the form of Treasury Auctions.
On the Calendar for this week:
- MondayMarch 1: January Personal Income, Spending and Core PCE index expected +0.4%, +0.4% and PCE +0.0. The Personal Consumption number is a favorite of the Fed since it shows what the consumer is actually doing. The numbers came across pretty much as anticipated today.
- Monday: February Institute of Supply Management expected 57.5%. This actually ended up weaker than anticipated at 56.5% and it is a mortgage market friendly number. As I type we have a very flat market.
- Tuesday March 2: I still cant believe it is March already... No news today.
- Wednesday March 3rd: February Institute of Supply Management, Service Sector expected to be 51.0%. The service sector is the largest part of the economy. The anticipated number is a touch higher than the previous report, but it is not a level that is a worry for the markets. It would take a reading below 50% to move rates lower.
- Wednesday: Fed Beige Book. This is a report that combines all 12 Federal Reserve Districts. While there are bright spots and signs of recovery, The employment report remains overwhelmingly weak. This report is not a likely market mover.
- ThursdayMarch 4: Initial Jobless claims for the previous week expected -30,000. Weather is an issue here that cuts down the reliability of this weekly report, look for Fridays report to over shadow this one.
- Thursday: Revised fourth quarter productivity expected +6.2% and Unit Labor costs -4.4%. It is rare that these reports are revised up or down. On the surface the number is very positive for rates since there certainly is no fear of inflation with productivity up and costs down! This is not a likely market mover.
- Thursday: January Factory Orders expected +1.7%. Heck, its March already, who cares about January? No one! so don't expect this to move things.
- Friday March 5: The employment report at 8:30am. Non Farm Payrolls expected -50,000, Jobless rate expected 9.8% and average hourly earnings +0.2%. Most of the country has experienced some crazy weather last month, so the report is one that comes with a big question mark because of that. A jobless rate of 9.7% or higher will likely be supportive of steady to possibly lower rates.
The overwhelming biggie of the week will be Friday's employment report. Ahead of this report we will probably see quiet trading. The other fly in the ointment would be Greece and the Federal Reserve's promise to keep short term rates low. The two of these really add up to be good news for rates since they will both help money flow into our credit markets.
This will likely be a quiet week for trading and end up with rates with in spitting distance of where we started the week.
Have a great week.
Rob
Mortgage Banker
www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf
(732)223-1630 x102
Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership!
Real Estate Mortgage Network
NJ Mortgages, New Jersey Mortgages, Mortgages in NJ, mortgage in New Jersey, Mortgages in New Jersey
Comments(3)