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If you are considering locking in an interest rate for a New York mortgage or a Florida mortgage, read this post.
Today’s only relevant economic data came from the Commerce Department late this morning. They announced that new orders for durable and non-durable goods fell 0.6% in April. This fell well short of the slight increase that was forecasted, making it favorable for the bond market and mortgage rates. However, it does not carry enough importance to offset the profit-taking we are seeing from last week’s bond rally.
The rest of the week is relatively light in terms of scheduled economic reports that are relevant to mortgage pricing. There are only three more pieces of monthly or quarterly economic data scheduled, none of which are considered to be highly important to the financial markets or mortgage pricing. We do have a Fed Chairman Bernanke speaking before a congressional committee Thursday that will draw plenty of attention. Nothing is scheduled for tomorrow, so look for the stock markets to influence bond trading and mortgage rates.
Wednesday has two events that we will watch. The first is the revised 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data at 8:30 AM ET. This data measures employee output and employer costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be a measurement of wage inflation. This is relevant because it is believed that the economy can grow with low inflationary pressures when productivity is high. Economic growth isn’t much of a concern to the bond market at the moment, but if productivity is at a high level when the economy does turn the corner, inflation may not be as much of a topic as it would be without strong productivity levels. Last month's preliminary reading revealed a 0.5% decline and analysts are expecting to see a 0.7% decline, but I don't think this piece of data will have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from that reading.
Wednesday afternoon brings us the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by Federal Reserve region. It is relied upon heavily by the Fed to determine monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. If it shows surprisingly softer economic activity since the last report, the bond market may thrive and mortgage rates could drop shortly after the 2:00 PM ET release. If it reveals signs of inflation growing or rapidly expanding economic activity in many regions, we could see mortgage rates revise higher Wednesday afternoon.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Empire Home Mortgage Inc. is a registered Mortgage Broker with the New York and Florida State Banking Departments and our loans are arranged through third party providers.
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