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How Part-Time Employment Will Stall the Real Estate Recovery

By
Services for Real Estate Pros with Smaulgld LLC

 

Smaulgld

I tried for modelling work but it was a bit slow and that’s when I took a part-time job at McDonalds. It gave me income while I was waiting for my big break and at the very least I could eat.” Sharon Stone

Friday as the jobs report was being released Ryan Sloper and I were doing our weekly podcast.

In real time we saw the headline non farm payroll number come in better than expected and speculated the bond, gold and silver markets would react negatively as a positive job number might mean the dreaded tapering of quantitative easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve might begin soon.

We also speculated that the job number might not be as good as it seemed as many of the jobs created might have been part time work. Moments later we saw that underemployment rate rose from 13.8% to 14.3% confirming our suspicions. We noted that the market, at least on Friday, would pay attention only to the headline “solid” jobs report. The bond, gold and silver markets sold off on Friday. The stock market cheered the “good news”.

But a closer look reveals the job numbers were not good at all....

 

The Part Time Recovery by the Numbers

Investor’s Business Daily broke down the state of our part time employment economy this way:

 

 

Comments(6)

Sharon Parisi
United Real Estate Dallas - Dallas, TX
Dallas Homes

Louis, you have made an important point.  For the most part, lenders are not comfortable with self employed applicants or part time workers. I suspect this will greatly impact the housing industry.  Many companies in the Dallas area are moving employees to part time positions.

Jul 07, 2013 02:42 AM
Louis Cammarosano
Smaulgld LLC - Hampton, NH
Smaulgld

Sharon

It really is a problem. What makes it worse is the incessant touting that the employment situation is getting better when its not.

I just read 25% of families have someone in their household looking for work.

Self employed people should be a good bet for mortgages but their stated income is often low due the amount of expenses they take.

 

Jul 07, 2013 02:45 AM
Gwen Fowler SC Lakes & Mountains 864-710-4518
Gwen Fowler Real Estate, Inc - Walhalla, SC
Gwen Fowler Real Estate, Inc.

I wish there was a way to document how many unemployed were out of benefits and had just given up trying to find a job.  I have a builder friend who is now putting in ceiling fans just to get some cash income, a builder who 6 years ago was the project manager on a $10 million house.  I talk to these people and realize that they will probably never get to buy again.

Jul 07, 2013 03:31 AM
Louis Cammarosano
Smaulgld LLC - Hampton, NH
Smaulgld

Gwen

There is a way-if they wanted to highlight those numbers but they don't

A close gauge of what you are talking about is the labor participation rate which is at 32 year lows.

Jul 07, 2013 03:52 AM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

Sadly, the unemployment statistic has absolutely no meaning.  Folks who have stopped looking - OR GOTTEN A REAL ESTATE LICENSE (HA!) aren't even counted.

Jul 07, 2013 04:01 AM
Louis Cammarosano
Smaulgld LLC - Hampton, NH
Smaulgld

Right you are Lenn!

Jul 07, 2013 04:11 AM