Noe Valley-Eureka Valley-Cole Valley District
February 2013 Update
Paragon's market overview for San Francisco Realtor District 5, which encompasses the central city neighborhoods of Noe Valley, Eureka Valley (including the Castro), Dolores Heights, Cole Valley, Mission Dolores, Haight Ashbury, Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Parnassus Heights, Corona Heights, Glen Park, Twin Peaks & the Duboce Triangle
District 5 is one of the more homogeneous districts in San Francisco in terms of property values, but still any analysis of an area with so many properties of different type, location, condition and quality can only be a very general overview. District 5 soared in value between 1996 and 2008 and was one of the last districts to peak in value before the financial markets meltdown in September 2008. Values then fell 15% to 20% very quickly and then stabilized in 2009 and 2010. With the surge in high-tech buyers in 2011 (among other economic factors), many of whom wish to be close to highways to the peninsula -- and love the lifestyle and ambiance of District 5 neighborhoods and its commercial districts -- activity in this district picked up dramatically. In 2012, the competition between qualified, motivated buyers here became ferocious: inventory is very low, certainly not enough to satisfy buyer demand, and many of the listings are selling very quickly in multiple-offer, competitive-bidding situations. This is exerting considerable upward pressure on prices.
If you adjust your screen view to a 125% zoom, the charts will be that much easier to read. On Windows systems, pressing the Control and + keys simultaneously should do this quickly.
******************************
Homes Selling Over, Under and At List Price One of the clearest indications of the extraordinary heat of the market in these central city neighborhoods is the huge percentage of listings selling for over asking price, and often far over asking price: 1 in 4 home listings that sell is closing for 10% or more over the list price.
Home Sales by Price Range A snapshot of number of sales by price segment in 2012.
Average Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot The two statistics of value in the charts following -- average sales price and average dollar per square foot -- can change depending on a number of market factors, but the general price trend over the past year or so is clearly upward. High demand plus low supply equals higher prices. When neighborhoods are grouped together below, it is because they generally share similar market values in particular property types. Annual statistics, because of the much greater amount of data, are typically more reliable than (fluctuating) quarterly or monthly stats, however when a market is changing quickly, as it has in 2012, annual data will minimize market changes (which is why the charts show statistics from the latter part of the past year).
Luxury Home Sales Higher end home sales in the Noe Valley, Eureka Valley, Cole Valley and associated neighborhoods of Realtor District 5 dramatically surged in 2012. Though prices are still significantly lower than in the old-prestige, northern neighborhoods such as Pacific and Presidio Heights, this area is playing a greater and greater role in luxury home segment. High-tech buyers are definitely playing a major role in this dynamic.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers An excellent statistical snapshot of supply and demand. As the market heated up, the percentage started climbing higher in 2011 and is now at its highest level in memory.
Price Reductions, Sales Price to List Price Percentage, and Days on Market Right now, the great majority of the homes that sell in District 5 now accept offers quickly before any price reductions are necessary and on average go well over asking price. However, those listings that go through one or more price reductions take much longer to sell and sell at a large discount to original list price. No matter what the market, proper pricing is a vital issue in the sale of real estate.
Homes for Sale on the Last Day of the Month The drastically low inventory of homes available to purchase in this area is clearly illustrated in this chart.
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) MSI is at an extremely low level of inventory for houses and condos, a reading that would be considered indicative of a very strong "Seller's Market." Indeed anything under 3-4 months is usually considered a Seller's Market.
Average Days on Market (DOM) Before Acceptance of Offer These figures can fluctuate without great meaningfulness -- a few listings that sell after being on the market for a long time can have a large impact on the average, even when new listings are selling very quickly -- but the trend can be interesting. Right now, many listings are accepting offers within 7-14 days of going on market.
Comments(2)