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A million short sales in 2013? I doubt it and here’s why.
Some prognosticators have predicted that the number of short sales completed in 2013 will double the mark set last year and approach one million for the calendar year.
Full disclosure: I am NOT an economist. I am NOT a statistician. My rebuttal is not predicated on anything more substantial than common sense.
But here are my reasons that we will not see a million short sales this year:
First and foremost, the system can’t handle the volume. There isn’t enough infrastructure in place to successfully complete that number of transactions.
Second, most of the pre-2006 investors are already out of the game. We are seeing less of these kinds of “bulk” short sales these days.
Third, many properties are getting closer to the “treading-water” mark and the sellers are less likely to succumb to the rigors of short-sale scrutiny, and will opt to test the market in hopes of a non-distress sale.
And finally, and this is the one where common-sense applies the most, many of the over-appraised, high interest rate loans have already been converted to lower principle, lower interest loans either by attrition or modification. Five years is a long time in a world where the average seller has ... more

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