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The Perfect Storm is Brewing in America

By
Mortgage and Lending with The Legacy Group
The Perfect Storm is Brewing right now in America right now. The Government is printing money at a record pace, the country's deficit is rising to nearly 14 Trillion dollars and unemployment is over 10% now. I realize this is doom and gloom information but let's get real here. The Fed has nearly finished purchasing it's 1.25 Trillion in Mortgage Backed Securities. This move by the Fed has artificially pushed interest rates lower in 2009 which has been great for business of course but supply still has to come to the market as well. With the weight of more supply hitting the market and a Fed buying less and less rates will move higher. Jobless Claims have gone down in the past few weeks but is this really the case when we have 10.2% unemployment? Two things could be happening here. First the media could be right and people are finding jobs and no longer need unemployment benefits, or they have been unemployed for so long their benefits are running out before they are able to find a job. I believe it is the latter because the high unemployment rate tells me the real picture. The arch enemy of low interest rates is Inflation, which is sure to kick into high gear in the next year or two. The US Dollars value is dwindling, the price of Gold is rising, Government spending is out of control and they are printing money in Washington faster than Paul Bunyan could cut trees to make the paper. The Fed is scrambling to try and keep the dollars value up but has spent itself into a hole I am not sure it can dig out of. Yesterday Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said this, "We are attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar." He also went on to say that "the Dollar is one of the main four factors affecting US inflation", and linked it to a second factor - "the prices of oil and other commodities". With Gold rising and interest rates sure to rise soon, then Oil and other commodities are sure to follow. I am not sure what the Fed is doing maybe they don't even know. Either way hold onto your seats as we are in for a wild ride with this storm!
Sonja Patterson
Keller Williams - BV - College Station, TX
Texas Monthly 5-Star Realtor Recipient for the Hou

An accurate analysis, Dan!  The affluence bubble had to pop at some point. We are SO SO wealthy compared to the rest of the world...that's why all the jobs are going overseas. 

Nov 19, 2009 10:47 AM
Dan Chapman
The Legacy Group - Santa Clarita, CA
Dan Chapman Mortgage Pro

thanks Sonja, let's hope the jobs come back soon!

Nov 20, 2009 04:16 AM
Paul McFadden
Responsive Pest Control - Seattle, WA
Pest Control, Seattle, WA.

Dan: Thank you. I too agree with your analysis although it may not hit as hard as we think. I'm worried about the price of gold being so high and agree with you oil prices, etc. will probably start to climb. The interesting thing is the last time gas prices were out of sight, the economy was booming. I've noticed that when prices get high, it's usually because people have more money to spend. I look for a better 2010 than 2009 but not by much. 2011 will probably start to signal better times. Until then, I agree with you. Things could be a little volatile!

Nov 20, 2009 06:11 AM
Dan Chapman
The Legacy Group - Santa Clarita, CA
Dan Chapman Mortgage Pro

HI Paul, I hope you are right about 2010. I just think rates will go up this spring. The price of Gold is crazy, advertisements are everywhere for it.

Let's hope Gas stays low but although i was a little kid in the 70's rates were what 13% and gas while cheap now it was expensive back then, I recall sitting in line forever to get some gas. I don't think things will get that bad but rates should go up over 6% maybe 7%. We were just at what 6.75% in the middle of 2008? I just think the FED is exaggerating to keep the markets artificially pumped up.

Nov 20, 2009 08:17 AM
GLENN LEACH
Mortgage - Puyallup, WA

The sky is falling, the sky is falling...  People have made fun of that poor little Chicken Little all these years, but you gotta think that one day that chicken will get it right.  And this time could be the one for sure.

Nov 20, 2009 08:30 AM