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Would you buy TODAY if you knew housing prices were going to drop 10%?

By
Real Estate Agent with Seven Gables Real Estate BRE 01727426

"No way!" is the answer I hear from 90% of the people I ask. The other 10% wisely answer that it depends on their interest rate. Here's a simple example.

 

$500,000 mortgage with a 5.5% fixed rate for 30 years = $2,839 monthly payment

 

Let's say prices drop 10%, BUT interest rates go up just 1% ...

 

 $450,000 mortgage with a 6.5% fixed rate for 30 years = $2,844 monthly payment

 

In other words, the mortgage payment is essentially the same with a 10% price decline coupled with a 1% interest rate increase.

 

So if you are still sitting on the fence, hoping to perfectly time the market, you may want to consider that NOW is the PERFECT time because the moment the general public agrees with you ...

1.Interest rates will go UP

2.Prices will go back UP

3.Selection will do DOWN

 

I don't know about you, but I'd rather buy when ...

1.Interest rates are LOW

2.Prices are GOOD

3.Selection is GREAT (actually, its very limited right now because this effect is in full swing)

 

The fact remains, we will not know when the PERFECT time WAS until the PERFECT time has PASSED. Don't miss out ... it's time to hop off the fence before everyone else.

Nancy Moeller, CPA, Real Estate Broker

Seven Gables Real Estate         

Direct: 714 276-7006

Epcon Communities Epcon Columbia
Epcon Columbia, SC - Columbia, SC

If you are selling and buying prices are irrelavent.   If you stay it would drop and if you move it would drop.

Dec 05, 2009 01:29 AM
Richard Mielke
RE/MAX Results - Gettysburg, PA
REALTOR, Gettysburg Pennsylvania Real Estate

The question is, will the house that you can buy today be still for sale when prices have dropped 10%? Food for thought.

Dec 05, 2009 01:32 AM
Edward & Celia Maddox
The Celtic Connection Realty - Queen Creek, AZ
EXPERIENCE & INTEGRITY - WE TAKE THE HIGH ROAD

Thanks for the article. We always learn new information from Active Rain Blogs. Best Regards,

Dec 05, 2009 01:35 AM
Peggy Chirico
Prudential CT Realty - Manchester, CT
REALTOR® 860-748-8900, Hartford & Tolland County Real Estate

Very clear example of how important interest rates are in the big scheme of things.  Also, it is becoming more clear (in our market anyway) that we may not see huge decreases in prices anymore anyway.  Thanks for posting.

Dec 05, 2009 01:48 AM
Mike Carlier
Lakeville, MN
More opinions than you want to hear about.

It depends also on whether you are making an investment in dollars or in life improvements.  Would you buy a new car today if you knew the price of that car was guaranteed to drop by 80% in five years?  Of course you would. It's never always about the money.

Dec 05, 2009 03:44 AM
Tom Boos
Sine & Monaghan Realtors, Real Living - Grosse Pointe Farms, MI
Providing the very best of service to Sellers and

The point is that none of us know exactly what is going to happen with regard to values OR interest rates in the future.  Now is the time to act because everything looks pretty good at this moment.  "Tomorrow" may actually be too late to take advantage of the "stars-aligned".

Dec 05, 2009 03:45 AM