La Crescenta Real Estate Market Report - June, 2007

Statistics Don't Lie - REALTORS do!

As we enter the second half of 2007 we have a great opportunity to evaluate our market and make some pretty broad conclusions.  Whether buying, selling, thinking (or dreading) of doing SOMETHING, don't we all like to know the TRUTH about the market?  You bet.

For those that receive my monthly market report that covers 25 different local areas, you are familiar with my Market Index.  If the index is above 1.20 we have a Seller's market, if between 1.20 and 0.80 it's a balanced market where neither buyer nor seller have advantage, and below 0.80 we have a buyer's market.  Overall in my service area we are at 0.30, down from 0.32 from May.  So, in other words, a very strong buyer's market.  Which is good, because most of the time, an average market is a buyer's market...so we are "average"

However, every area likes to think that "we are different because....of our schools, local economy, etc."  Is that true?   Let's examine La Crescenta:

Looking at the last four months, with June ending the peak of the spring selling season, we find Active Listings introduced each month about flat.  Same with Pending listings, the rate is hovering about 30%.  However, we are seeing a steady increase in inventory.  In March we had 106 properties, at the end of June 169, an increase of almost 60%.

To make that happen, sales have been lagging.  Sales have actually increased from 23 in March, to 36 in June, however Sales have not kept pace with growing inventory.  And, to mirror that trend, listing times have increased over 25%.  Remember, the listing times do not reflect "re-lists", so the actual market time is probably another 10-20 days.

The rule of thumb is that a "balance market" is when you have an absorption rate of six months.  Right now we have 169 properties; we are averaging about 25 listings a month, so we are over the six month mark.  Which is perfect; the Market Index has shifted from 0.36 in March, down to 0.31 in June, one hundredth better than the overall area Market Index of 0.30.

Conclusion?  We have a strong buyer's market, with over six months of inventory, so the short term forecast is the interest rates trending upward; it's not going away anytime soon.  The good news is that homes that are selling are going into escrow relatively quickly.  It's those homes that have been on the market for a while that are shifting the Days On Market (DOM) stats.

If you are buying NOW IS THE TIME.  If you are selling, NOW IS THE TIME.  Properly prepared homes, decluttered, staged, freshly painted, priced right, sell within three or for weeks, sometimes sooner.  Overpriced homes, not prepared, will sit there.  Need advice, just drop me an email  at keith@lacrescentavalleyhomes.com or call  818-455-0830.

Data is from iTech MLS and has not been verified, is not guaranteed, and is subject to change.