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Mortgages to Exceed Value until 2015 to 2020

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Highland Realty, Inc 0225 099336

First American CoreLogic has estimated that even in the healthier markets that are now beginning to heal from the steep price drops of the last three years, homeowners currently with underwater mortgages will continue to have mortgages that exceed value until late 2015.

By the 4th quarter of 2009 First American CoreLogic estimated that over 11.3 million residences with mortgages had negative equity. That’s 24% of all U.S. mortgages.

By using a subset of mortgage holders, CoreLogic was able to project the length of time it will take for the average homeowner to again reach positive equity. The typical borrower will see the problem disappear toward the end of 2015 or early 2016, while those in severely depressed markets such as Detroit may not see positive equity again until 2020.

Because negative equity is highly associated with mortgage default, this is a strong indication that those of us investing in Short Sales will see a booming business for at least the next five or six years.

Lenn, I going to go raise my window now, so I can hear you more easily from Leesburg......

 

Dave Rosenmarkle

Broker/Owner

Highland Realty

Arlington, VA  22207

703-538-2566

davidrose@mris.com

www.HighlandAgents.com

Kevin J. May
Florida Supreme Realty - Hobe Sound, FL
Serving the Treasure & Paradise Coasts of Florida

Dave, I believe the reports are more lenient than the reality.  Many factors to consider, and I am hoping it won't repeat in any near future generations.

Apr 06, 2010 11:31 AM
Delaware Junk Removal Residential And Commercial Hauling Clean Outs
Delaware Junk Removal 302-530-9186 - Wilmington, DE
Whole House Clean Outs, Basements, Garages, Attics

What a bitter pill, I wonder when the next bank bailout will be?

Apr 06, 2010 11:40 AM
DEBORAH STONE
Balboa Real Estate San Diego, CA - San Diego, CA

This is not good news for the health of the industry. In fact, it is very bad news. I wonder what other complications this will have on other financial markets and the economic recovery in general?

Apr 06, 2010 11:52 AM
Cheryl Ritchie
RE/MAX Leading Edge www.GoldenResults.com - Huntingtown, MD
Southern Maryland 301-980-7566

Pull up a chair and sit down on this set of statistics. These really make you think. There is simply no quick fix.

Apr 06, 2010 12:26 PM
Sonja Patterson
Keller Williams - BV - College Station, TX
Texas Monthly 5-Star Realtor Recipient for the Hou

2020...wow!! I will be officially old then! LOL!  I am thankful our market has not been as hard hit here. 

Apr 06, 2010 01:08 PM
Richie Alan Naggar
people first...then business Ran Right Realty - Riverside, CA
agent & author

Dave

I wonder what really is going on. I hear so many different stories. For instance, lenders make more money when they are servicing a delinquent loan. It has to do with reserve values and other banking dynamics that exceed my knowledge. Then I am hearing that the banks will be outsorucing their shotr sale acitivites to professional REO companies to capitalize even more. Even now, the banks want a percentage of the transaction and have been eyeing what agents are making. Dave.....I hope you are right. the banks want to make money for their shareholders and I think things will start to shift more that way Thank you.

Apr 06, 2010 01:11 PM
Chris Olsen
Olsen Ziegler Realty - Cleveland, OH
Broker Owner Cleveland Ohio Real Estate

Hi Dave -- I just met with two sellers this past week and ran into this very issue, it's happening more and more.

Apr 06, 2010 01:13 PM
Roxy Redenbaugh
Roxy Redenbaugh (Acceptance Capital Mortgage Corporation) - Waialua, HI
NMLS#269926

Yes I would have to agree... 2020 is more like it. I hear a staggering6500 foreclosures expected per day over just the next 12 months. The cause ARM's and option ARM's forecasted to adj in the months to come. It's not going to end there either.    

Apr 06, 2010 01:32 PM
Cindy Jones
Integrity Real Estate Group - Woodbridge, VA
Pentagon, Fort Belvoir & Quantico Real Estate News

And in reading the statistics by area it appears that our area DC-Arlington-Alexandria is hitting 31% negative equity and an additional 5% hitting near negative equity.  Nothing to sneeze at.

Apr 06, 2010 01:53 PM
Ruthmarie Hicks
Keller Williams NY Realty - 120 Bloomingdale Road #101, White Plains NY 10605 - White Plains, NY

This doesn't surprise me at all.  I've been telling my sellers this for some time but they don't want to hear it.  Do you have the link? 

Apr 06, 2010 04:32 PM
Sharon Alters
Coldwell Banker Vanguard Realty - 904-673-2308 - Fleming Island, FL
Realtor - Homes for Sale Fleming Island FL

Dave, I saw this a couple of days ago. While not surprised, I'm rather stunned to think about it.

Apr 06, 2010 04:57 PM
Lynn Krogseng
Keller Williams Premier Partners - Vancouver, WA

When ever I hear a would-be home seller say "we'll wait for the market to return", this is what I need to give them...

Apr 06, 2010 05:07 PM
Pam Turner, REALTOR®, e-PRO®, SFR
Century 21 Belk Realtors Dalton GA - Dalton, GA

Wow - it's just plain hard to comprehend. I'm not sure the market will ever be the same.

Apr 06, 2010 11:25 PM
Gabe Sanders
Real Estate of Florida specializing in Martin County Residential Homes, Condos and Land Sales - Stuart, FL
Stuart Florida Real Estate

Interesting statistics Dave.  As an average it's probably a good guess.  Of course for the individual home owners and their situations it could vary widely.

Apr 07, 2010 12:54 AM
Bill Travis
Captain Bill Realty, LLC - Gilbert, AZ
Broker/Owner

That's a very long time for anyone to be underwater, and if it happens, we may see more people walking away.

Apr 07, 2010 02:19 AM
Michael J. Perry
KW Elite - Lancaster, PA
Lancaster, PA Relo Specialist

We have be running some huge real estate pre-licensing classes this year !!! What are these people thinking ??????????

Apr 07, 2010 02:59 AM
Esko Kiuru
Bethesda, MD

Dave,

Those numbers are pretty sobering. It's quite possible that highly affected markets like Vegas, Florida and parts of California will have underwater subdivisions well past 2020.

Apr 07, 2010 03:36 AM
John Neibich
Home Savings of America - Prescott, AZ

We'll keep seeing high numbers of strategic foreclosures, and some lenders will start writing down principal balances on underwater loans, in an effort to save themselves from taking on the home, upkeep and HOA fees. As job growth picks up, more jobs will translate into more stable families, and more families looking to own homes. Prices will stabilize, if they haven't already, and the combo of increased foreclosures/ modifications with write downs lowering the size of the loans, and more buyers coming in buying short sales, fewer will be underwater out to 2015.

Now, Detroit, good luck. First step, stop trying to keep auto industry jobs of companies that are going out of business.

Apr 07, 2010 10:17 AM
Christine Donovan
Donovan Blatt Realty - Costa Mesa, CA
Broker/Attorney 714-319-9751 DRE01267479 - Costa M

I think mortgage defaults and short sales are going to be part of the real estate landscape for years to come.

Apr 07, 2010 03:56 PM
Kevin Dwyer
Sellstate Next Generation - San Diego, CA

Sad to say it, but I agree with the study. Short sales are the future of our business for the next 10+ years. I really hope the banks figure out how to do them in a more timely manner by then :0)

Apr 07, 2010 06:18 PM