I'm a gardening fool, so weather has always mattered to me. Whether the season is going to be right for tomatoes or make for better than usual roses isn't earth shaking information to the general public. On the other hand if you follow every diet guru's diet advice to eat plenty of fresh fruits and vegetables, you might have noticed that lots of the produce in the supermarkets is more expensive than usual. This isn't just a California fruit phenomenon. Fruit exports from Spain declined sharply during the first part of this year as well.
Meanwhile, in the midwest, weather as much as ten degrees warmer than normal has corn and soybean crop prospects looking especially strong. I have strong midwestern roots so I'm happy to see great prospects for the farmers this year. On the other hand, if the warmer weather pattern holds for the summer, I'd hate to be stuck in a non-air-conditioned house in August and September.
The relevance of these comments to real estate is that the variations in weather (the short term and local stuff) are hinting about bigger changes in the climate (long term trends both local and global) that are going to bring changes to many parts of the country. A simple example from my wine grape growing area might illustrate the point. Within about a 25 mile radius, weather conditions are well studied and plantings made in more than a dozen different wine appellations. The weather that works great for coastal and Russian River Pinot Noir would be terrible for Cabernet Sauvignon and Zinfandel. Changes of just a few degrees of temperature or the duration of morning fog could render thousands of planted acres obsolete.
Similarly, the zones for commercial growing of avocado trees include just small parts of southern California and Florida. Attempts in Texas along the Rio Grande have failed because of winter frosts, and Hawaii's avocado production is very modest. Changes in climate could either give us more great avocado production...or none.
As specialists in real estate, we have become experts in what is, not what will be. My comments on maximum heat in Cloverdale might be out of date this year. My projections for the maximum flood stage in Guerneville might get overtaken by a 2011 deluge. For the most part, I'm sure that we'll do fine to adapt to changes in the climate. We really don't have any choice about that. It's just that change and uncertainty make it harder for us to be as reliable as all of us want to be.
So, how's the weather been in your neck of the woods this year.
Comments(7)