Is Employment on the Rise???

The December Employment Report is expected to show the economy added 126k new jobs to the economy last month, including 140k new private-sector jobs. (Government jobs are expected to be depressed, bringing the headline figure down). Forecasts for the headline figure ranged from 90k to 225k according to 32 economists polled last week by Thomson Reuters. Since Wednesday’s ADP employment report ― which reported 297k private payroll gains in the month ― estimates have jumped upwards. “The surprisingly large increase very likely reflected seasonal adjustment distortions rather than a sudden swing in job market conditions,” said economists at Nomura Global Economics. This morning’s report follows a disappointing November survey in which a net 39k jobs were created, including just 50k private jobs. Some economists believe that figure could see upward revisions, based on better data from jobless claims, November’s ISM employment components, and the last two ADP reports. Economists at BTMU, for instance, wrote: “The November payroll report was very disappointing, showing only +39K jobs were created over the month. But the stock market shrugged it off because other labor market indicators leading up to the report had been positive. We expect November’s job count to get an upward revision.” Looking to December’s report, economists at IHS Global Insight said firms “are becoming more confident in the expansion, and hiring is improving as a result.” “Continuing declines in initial unemployment insurance claims indicate that the very weak November employment report was an aberration,” they wrote. “We expect payroll employment gains to improve to 150,000 in December from just 39,000 in November, and the unemployment rate to edge down to 9.7% from 9.8%.”