Mortgage Buddy Rate Outlook for the Up Coming Week

Mortgage Buddy Rate Outlook for the Up Coming Week

Last week we saw a run up in rates until we hit the wall of weak unemployment report on Friday morning. In fact the report was miserable with only 18,000 jobs created in the month of June. The question remains was this just a "soft patch" or are we starting a trend walking away towards the recovery we were starting. This coming week will be dominated by the second quarter earnings report starting as usual with the aluminum giant Alcoa AA. Good earnings will push the market higher and rates higher but it will also show that companies don't need to be hiring in order to be profitable. The other question is how much did the quake and tsunami in Japan slow down the market.

Let's take a look at the economic data on tap for the work

Tuesday 2pm The Release of the FOMC Minutes: The will give us insight as to what was being said behind closed doors of the last fed meeting. Is there more stimulus being discussed? Is a rate hike in the near future?

Thursday 830AM PPI- The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller.

Friday 830AM CPI- The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation. This can really move rates up depending on what the data looks like.

There is also a 10yr treasury auction and some manufacturing data that will be released.

My Thoughts:

This week is going to be really tough to gage. We have earnings that should be strong depending on the after shocks of the Japan disaster. This would push up rates and the market. There is a treasury auction on Wed that could move rates up or down depending on the purchase demand. Another factor to consider is the inflation data and manufacturing data. I usually like to make an educated guess as to where the rates are going to go but there is so much push and pull in the market this week that it could be either way. The jobs report was a huge punch in the arm on Friday and I'm sure the Asian markets will have a week overnight trading session which could cause a hang over in the market on Monday. I don't see a huge spike that's for sure. The tendency is flat to a small up or down range. Pay close attention to the market if you need to lock because you don't want too much positive market news to hurt your promised low rates.